NCAAFSat 6:30 PM CTUFCU Stadium

Utah State Aggies at Texas State Bobcats

TV · CBSSN

Sat 6:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

USU +12.5

51%

USU 23.73–35.69 TXST

Utah State Aggies

2-4 · W1 · computer pick

87 PF · 141 PA

23.73

Projected

Texas State Bobcats

3-3 · W1

240 PF · 193 PA

35.69

USU 23%TXST 77%

Projected USU 23.73–35.69 TXST

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

TXST -10.8

TXST -12.5

Total

59.3

59.5

Gap: -1.7 margin, -0.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: USU vs TXST

The model

How this number was built

USU 23.73–35.69 TXST · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
TXST -0.1 vs USU -7.6 · pred margin +12.0
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +4.9 vs -0.4 · model TXST 35.2–23.5 USU
Home field
+3.0 pts to TXST
Record
TXST 3-3 · USU 2-4
Market prior
Blended 68% toward TXST -12.5 / total 59.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Grady Brosterhous
Pass 78/142, 914 YDS, 7 TD, 6 INT
Javen Jacobs
Rush 70 CAR, 393 YDS, 2 TD
Eli Wood
Rec 36 REC, 472 YDS, 5 TD

Brad Jackson
Pass 106/157, 1439 YDS, 14 TD, 5 INT
Torrance Burgess Jr.
Rush 108 CAR, 838 YDS, 5 TD
Chris Dawn Jr.
Rec 29 REC, 348 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	USU	TXST
Points Per Game	14.5	40.0
Total Yards	310.0	562.3
Yards Passing	189.8	258.8
Yards Rushing	120.2	303.5
Points Allowed Per Game	23.5	32.2
Yards Allowed	359.7	424.3
Pass Yards Allowed	218.8	297.3
Rush Yards Allowed	140.8	127.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Utah State vs Texas St prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is USU +12.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projects Utah State 23.7, Texas St 35.7. Model win probability: Texas St 77%, Utah State 23%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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