NCAAFSat 5:30 PM CTCanvas Stadium

San Diego State Aztecs at Colorado State Rams

TV · CW

Sat 5:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

CSU +2.5

51%

SDSU 31.30–29.03 CSU

San Diego State Aztecs

3-4 · W1

163 PF · 233 PA

31.30

Projected

Colorado State Rams

2-4 · L4 · computer pick

214 PF · 259 PA

29.03

SDSU 56%CSU 44%

Projected SDSU 31.30–29.03 CSU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

SDSU -1.8

SDSU -2.5

Total

60.0

60.5

Gap: +0.7 margin, -0.5 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: SDSU vs CSU

The model

How this number was built

SDSU 31.30–29.03 CSU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
CSU -12.6 vs SDSU -8.8 · pred margin -2.3
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -5.2 vs -0.4 · model CSU 27.3–31.5 SDSU
Home field
+3.0 pts to CSU
Record
CSU 2-4 · SDSU 3-4
Market prior
Blended 68% toward SDSU -2.5 / total 60.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jayden Denegal
Pass 83/151, 899 YDS, 7 TD, 5 INT
Javion Kinnard
Rush 81 CAR, 432 YDS, 1 TD
Nathan Acevedo
Rec 17 REC, 181 YDS, 2 TD

K'saan Farrar
Pass 89/144, 931 YDS, 5 TD, 2 INT
Mel Brown
Rush 47 CAR, 431 YDS, 3 TD
RJ Vick
Rec 24 REC, 367 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SDSU	CSU
Points Per Game	23.3	35.7
Total Yards	292.9	445.3
Yards Passing	148.9	274.7
Yards Rushing	144.0	170.7
Points Allowed Per Game	33.3	43.2
Yards Allowed	449.0	530.3
Pass Yards Allowed	276.6	256.0
Rush Yards Allowed	172.4	274.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

San Diego St vs Colorado St prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is CSU +2.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projects San Diego St 31.3, Colorado St 29.0. Model win probability: Colorado St 44%, San Diego St 56%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day