Illinois Fighting Illini at #4 UCLA Bruins
Final · Fox
14–22
At lock: projected ILL 19.58–28.65 UCLA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 12, 8:00 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1208770128
- Winner: UCLA (71%)
- Spread: ILL +10 covers (51% vs 47%, push 2%)
- Total: Over 47.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)13
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ILL vs UCLA
The model
How this number was built
ILL 19.58–28.65 UCLA · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexUCLA +12.7 vs ILL +7.5 · pred margin +9.7
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +7.8 vs +4.6 · model UCLA 27.6–19.4 ILL
- Home field+3.0 pts to UCLA
- RecordUCLA 10-0 · ILL 6-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward UCLA -10.5 / total 48.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILL | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| UCLA | 7 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 22 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 12:370–7
Aidan Mizell 54 Yd pass from Ty Dieffenbach (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)
- FGQ2 1:260–10
Mateen Bhaghani 20 Yd Field Goal
- SFQ3 8:270–12
Team Safety
- TDQ3 1:087–12
Kaden Feagin 18 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Ethan Moczulski Kick)
- TDQ4 11:387–19
Semaj Morgan 26 Yd pass from Ty Dieffenbach (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)
- TDQ4 7:1414–19
Collin Dixon 7 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Ethan Moczulski Kick)
- FGQ4 1:5614–22
Mateen Bhaghani 37 Yd Field Goal
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| ILL | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Katin Houser #4 | 16/34 | 176 | 5.2 | 2 | 3 | 42.7 |
 Carson Boyd #2 | 0/3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 15.9 |
| Team | 16/37 | 176 | 4.8 | 2 | 3 | -- |
Rushing
| ILL | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aidan Laughery #21 | 16 | 49 | 3.1 | 0 | 9 |
 Jordan Anderson #23 | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 | 4 |
Katin Houser #4 | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 7 |
Team | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 30 | 64 | 2.1 | 0 | 9 |
Receiving
| ILL | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hudson Clement #13 | 3 | 62 | 20.7 | 0 | 24 |
 Kaden Feagin #83 | 3 | 49 | 16.3 | 1 | 18 |
 Collin Dixon #17 | 4 | 36 | 9.0 | 1 | 27 |
 Christian Abney #86 | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 | 9 |
 Brayden Trimble #11 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 9 |
Jordan Anderson #23 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
 Ty Robinson #10 | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 16 | 176 | 11.0 | 2 | 27 |
Defense
| ILL | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 James Kreutz #10 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Matthew Bailey #7 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Daniel Brown #4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tanner Heckel #16 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ismael Kante #26 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Xavier Scott #1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Joe Barna #43 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mason Muragin #18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Juice Clarke #6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Carter Janki #90 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Ben Clawson #21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Robert Edmonson #45 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Katin Houser #4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Pat Farrell #52 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ean Rhea #40 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Darrell Prater #96 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Xanai Scott #13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 65 | 31 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Interceptions
| ILL | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Juice Clarke #6 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Kicking
| ILL | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ethan Moczulski #37 | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2/2 | 2 |
| Team | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2/2 | 2 |
Punting
| ILL | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lars Rau #81 | 4 | 153 | 38.3 | 0 | 1 | 44 |
| Team | 4 | 153 | 38.3 | 0 | 1 | 44 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ILL | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 17 | 17 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 8-16 | 5-13 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Total Yards | 240 | 361 |
| Passing | 176 | 253 |
| Comp/Att | 16/37 | 16/27 |
| Yards per pass | 4.8 | 9.4 |
| Rushing | 64 | 108 |
| Rushing Attempts | 30 | 34 |
| Yards per rush | 2.1 | 3.2 |
| Penalties | 5-45 | 5-60 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 3 | 1 |
| Possession | 30:19 | 29:41 |
Model projected ILL 19.58 – 28.65 UCLA at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.0%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Katin Houser · ILL
16/34 C/ATT · 176 YDSTy Dieffenbach · UCLA
13/20 C/ATT · 232 YDSAidan Laughery · ILL
16 CAR · 49 YDSWayne Knight · UCLA
18 CAR · 56 YDSHudson Clement · ILL
3 REC · 62 YDSAidan Mizell · UCLA
6 REC · 176 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Illinois vs UCLA pick result · Nov 13, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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