Minnesota Golden Gophers at Penn State Nittany Lions
Final · FS1
14–42
At lock: projected MINN 16.14–26.50 PSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 9:00 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1242325366
- Winner: Penn State (75%)
- Spread: PSU -9.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 41.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)17
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MINN vs PSU
The model
How this number was built
MINN 16.14–26.50 PSU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexPSU +12.2 vs MINN +1.8 · pred margin +12.4
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +6.9 vs +2.8 · model PSU 28.7–19.0 MINN
- Home field+3.0 pts to PSU
- RecordPSU 6-4 · MINN 5-5
- Market priorBlended 66% toward PSU -12.5 / total 42.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MINN | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14 |
| PSU | 14 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 42 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 8:440–7
Rocco Becht 1 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)
- TDQ1 5:150–14
Benjamin Brahmer 19 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Ryan Barker Kick)
- TDQ2 10:100–21
Carson Hansen 46 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)
- TDQ2 0:330–28
Cam Wallace 1 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Ryan Barker Kick)
- TDQ3 8:330–35
Benjamin Brahmer 4 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Ryan Barker Kick)
- TDQ3 6:147–35
Javon Tracy 10 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)
- TDQ3 1:4014–35
Javon Tracy 15 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)
- TDQ4 2:5114–42
James Peoples 22 Yd pass from Alex Manske (Ryan Barker Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| MINN | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Drake Lindsey #5 | 16/30 | 185 | 6.2 | 2 | 0 | 22.3 |
| Team | 16/30 | 185 | 6.2 | 2 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| MINN | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Darius Taylor #1 | 13 | 32 | 2.5 | 0 | 14 |
 Xavier Ford #9 | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 | 7 |
 TJ Thomas #23 | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | 4 |
 Zeke Bates #26 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
Drake Lindsey #5 | 4 | -31 | -7.8 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 27 | 41 | 1.5 | 0 | 14 |
Receiving
| MINN | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Darius Taylor #1 | 4 | 85 | 21.3 | 0 | 58 |
 Javon Tracy #11 | 6 | 51 | 8.5 | 2 | 15 |
 Noah Jennings #13 | 2 | 33 | 16.5 | 0 | 26 |
 Jalen Smith #8 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 9 |
 Kaden Helms #87 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
TJ Thomas #23 | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 6 |
| Team | 16 | 185 | 11.6 | 2 | 58 |
Fumbles
| MINN | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Drake Lindsey #5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Javon Tracy #11 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Darius Taylor #1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Xavier Ford #9 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Defense
| MINN | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Maverick Baranowski #6 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Joey Gerlach #19 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Matt Kingsbury #49 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kerry Brown #14 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 TJ Bush Jr. #3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Xion Chapman #90 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zack Harden #4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Aydan West #5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Mekhai Smith #22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Naquan Crowder #70 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mike Gerald #8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Karter Menz #11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Donielle Hayes #18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Naiim Parrish #21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Aidan Gousby #7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaxon Howard #1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zahir Rainer #13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ethan Stendel #44 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nate Cleveland #35 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Adam Kissayi #98 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 64 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Kick returns
| MINN | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Quayd Hendryx #89 | 3 | 68 | 22.7 | 27 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 68 | 22.7 | 27 | 0 |
Punt returns
| MINN | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Javon Tracy #11 | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
Kicking
| MINN | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Luke Drzewiecki | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2/2 | 2 |
| Team | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2/2 | 2 |
Punting
| MINN | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tom Weston #42 | 6 | 248 | 41.3 | 0 | 2 | 53 |
| Team | 6 | 248 | 41.3 | 0 | 2 | 53 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MINN | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 14 | 16 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 3-13 | 5-12 |
| 4th down efficiency | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Total Yards | 226 | 351 |
| Passing | 185 | 122 |
| Comp/Att | 16/30 | 11/17 |
| Yards per pass | 6.2 | 7.2 |
| Rushing | 41 | 229 |
| Rushing Attempts | 27 | 41 |
| Yards per rush | 1.5 | 5.6 |
| Penalties | 6-40 | 5-50 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 27:30 | 32:30 |
Model projected MINN 16.14 – 26.50 PSU at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.1%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Drake Lindsey · MINN
16/30 C/ATT · 185 YDSRocco Becht · PSU
9/15 C/ATT · 84 YDSDarius Taylor · MINN
13 CAR · 32 YDSCarson Hansen · PSU
12 CAR · 126 YDSAndrew Rappleyea · PSU
4 REC · 45 YDSMaverick Baranowski · MINN
11 TOT · 5 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Minnesota vs Penn State pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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