Northwestern Wildcats at #21 Ohio State Buckeyes
Final · Fox
19–28
At lock: projected NU 16.69–29.93 OSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 12:40 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1275880604
- Winner: Ohio State (80%)
- Spread: NU +14 covers (51% vs 47%, push 2%)
- Total: Over 44.5 (60%)
- Score error (both teams)4
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: NU vs OSU
The model
How this number was built
NU 16.69–29.93 OSU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexOSU +24.3 vs NU +12.3 · pred margin +14.6
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +14.2 vs +6.8 · model OSU 31.7–17.0 NU
- Home field+3.0 pts to OSU
- RecordOSU 7-3 · NU 6-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward OSU -14.5 / total 45.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NU | 3 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 19 |
| OSU | 0 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ1 4:533–0
Jackson Kleather 44 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 14:153–7
Isaiah West 4 Yd pass from Luke Fahey (Connor Hawkins Kick)
- FGQ2 9:206–7
Jackson Kleather 46 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 2:516–14
Bo Jackson 2 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)
- TDQ3 10:0113–14
Nicco Marchiol 2 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)
- TDQ3 2:5213–21
Devin McCuin 8 Yd pass from Luke Fahey (Connor Hawkins Kick)
- TDQ4 6:3313–28
Jeremiah Smith 10 Yd pass from Luke Fahey (Connor Hawkins Kick)
- TDQ4 0:0019–28
Luke Dehnicke 17 Yd pass from Nicco Marchiol
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| NU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nicco Marchiol #4 | 18/31 | 225 | 7.3 | 1 | 0 | 67.2 |
| Team | 18/31 | 225 | 7.3 | 1 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| NU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Caleb Komolafe #5 | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 0 | 10 |
 Joseph Himon II #6 | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 | 5 |
 Gavin Sawchuk #27 | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 |
 Luke Dehnicke #84 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Nicco Marchiol #4 | 10 | -15 | -1.5 | 1 | 4 |
| Team | 29 | 53 | 1.8 | 1 | 10 |
Receiving
| NU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Luke Dehnicke #84 | 5 | 88 | 17.6 | 1 | 41 |
 Alex Honig #86 | 2 | 49 | 24.5 | 0 | 37 |
Joseph Himon II #6 | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 | 20 |
 Griffin Wilde #17 | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 | 18 |
Caleb Komolafe #5 | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | 12 |
Gavin Sawchuk #27 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 |
 Drew Wagner #19 | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | 3 |
| Team | 18 | 225 | 12.5 | 1 | 41 |
Fumbles
| NU | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Drew Wagner #19 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Nicco Marchiol #4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Braydon Brus #33 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 Braden Turner #9 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Defense
| NU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Robert Fitzgerald #6 | 11 | 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jack Sadowsky V #45 | 9 | 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Damon Walters #21 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Braden Turner #9 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Braydon Brus #33 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mason Mayne #95 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brendan Flakes #15 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ore Adeyi #7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Montae Pate #4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Marquet Dorsey Jr. #25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Michael Kilbane #47 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jamaal Johnson #24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tito Williams Jr. #31 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kobie McKinzie #2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tyler Gant #54 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Callen Campbell #44 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 69 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Interceptions
| NU | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Braden Turner #9 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 19 | 0 |
Kick returns
| NU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gavin Sawchuk #27 | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 19 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 19 | 0 |
Punt returns
| NU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Drew Wagner #19 | 3 | 51 | 17.0 | 30 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 51 | 17.0 | 30 | 0 |
Kicking
| NU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jackson Kleather #90 | 2/2 | 100.0 | 46 | 1/1 | 7 |
| Team | 2/2 | 100.0 | 46 | 1/1 | 7 |
Punting
| NU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nikola Dugandzic #92 | 5 | 172 | 34.4 | 1 | 2 | 41 |
| Team | 5 | 172 | 34.4 | 1 | 2 | 41 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NU | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 15 | 24 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 6-15 | 6-12 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Total Yards | 278 | 369 |
| Passing | 225 | 201 |
| Comp/Att | 18/31 | 21/32 |
| Yards per pass | 7.3 | 6.3 |
| Rushing | 53 | 168 |
| Rushing Attempts | 29 | 35 |
| Yards per rush | 1.8 | 4.8 |
| Penalties | 5-40 | 5-60 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 3 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 2 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
| Possession | 27:09 | 32:51 |
Model projected NU 16.69 – 29.93 OSU at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.2%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Nicco Marchiol · NU
18/31 C/ATT · 225 YDSLuke Fahey · OSU
21/32 C/ATT · 201 YDSCaleb Komolafe · NU
11 CAR · 54 YDSBo Jackson · OSU
20 CAR · 114 YDSLuke Dehnicke · NU
5 REC · 88 YDSJeremiah Smith · OSU
11 REC · 117 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Northwestern vs Ohio State pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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