Wisconsin Badgers at Maryland Terrapins
Final · FS1
21–24
At lock: projected WIS 25.51–18.09 MD
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 12:40 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1309435842
- Winner: Wisconsin (68%)
- Spread: MD +8.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 42.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)11
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: WIS vs MD
The model
How this number was built
WIS 25.51–18.09 MD · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexMD -3.5 vs WIS +9.2 · pred margin -8.4
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -1.2 vs +4.3 · model MD 19.7–25.0 WIS
- Home field+3.0 pts to MD
- RecordMD 4-6 · WIS 6-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward WIS -8.5 / total 40.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIS | 7 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 21 |
| MD | 0 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 24 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 11:017–0
Darrion Dupree 4 Yd Run (Gavin Lahm Kick)
- FGQ2 8:0810–0
Gavin Lahm 37 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 3:1610–7
Cardell Williams 1 Yd Run (Sean O'Haire Kick)
- TDQ3 8:2410–14
Cardell Williams 3 Yd Run (Sean O'Haire Kick)
- FGQ3 4:2313–14
Gavin Lahm 42 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 14:0421–14
Darrion Dupree 1 Yd Run (Ryan Hopkins Pass to Eugene Hilton Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)
- TDQ4 2:1121–21
Preston Howard 39 Yd pass from Cardell Williams (Sean O'Haire Kick)
- FGQ4 0:2921–24
Sean O'Haire 30 Yd Field Goal
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| WIS | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ryan Hopkins #10 | 11/22 | 77 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 | 5.3 |
 Colton Joseph #1 | 2/2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 | 0 | 44.9 |
Team | 0/1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| Team | 13/25 | 99 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| WIS | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Darrion Dupree #6 | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 2 | 17 |
 Abu Sama III #3 | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 | 18 |
Ryan Hopkins #10 | 10 | 16 | 1.6 | 0 | 28 |
 Eugene Hilton Jr. #13 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 8 |
 Bryan Jackson II #21 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 31 | 102 | 3.3 | 2 | 28 |
Receiving
| WIS | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jaylon Domingeaux #9 | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 | 21 |
 Tyrell Henry #0 | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 | 14 |
Darrion Dupree #6 | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 | 15 |
 Jacob Harris #89 | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | 13 |
Eugene Hilton Jr. #13 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 9 |
 Chris Brooks Jr. #2 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
Abu Sama III #3 | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 13 | 99 | 7.6 | 0 | 21 |
Fumbles
| WIS | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Ryan Hopkins #10 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Darrion Dupree #6 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Matthew Jung #29 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 5 | 3 | 1 |
Defense
| WIS | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mason Posa #8 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cooper Catalano #44 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Donovan Dunmore #18 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Matthew Traynor #13 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nicolas Clayton #12 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cairo Skanes #21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Matthew Jung #29 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nolan Vils #92 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Marvin Burks Jr. #4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Bryce West #5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Javan Robinson #2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Micheal Garner #51 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chris Brooks Jr. #2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Charles Perkins #30 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dillan Johnson #76 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Eric Fletcher Jr. #1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Grant Dean #16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 James Roe #56 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Liam Danitz #14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Taylor Schaefer #43 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jon Jon Kamara #28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Hammond Russell IV #91 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 73 | 47 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Kick returns
| WIS | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Darrion Dupree #6 | 2 | 56 | 28.0 | 30 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 56 | 28.0 | 30 | 0 |
Kicking
| WIS | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gavin Lahm #97 | 2/2 | 100.0 | 42 | 1/1 | 7 |
| Team | 2/2 | 100.0 | 42 | 1/1 | 7 |
Punting
| WIS | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sean West #91 | 5 | 192 | 38.4 | 0 | 0 | 46 |
| Team | 5 | 192 | 38.4 | 0 | 0 | 46 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| WIS | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 15 | 15 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 2-12 | 2-13 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Total Yards | 201 | 290 |
| Passing | 99 | 183 |
| Comp/Att | 13/25 | 21/23 |
| Yards per pass | 4.0 | 8.0 |
| Rushing | 102 | 107 |
| Rushing Attempts | 31 | 39 |
| Yards per rush | 3.3 | 2.7 |
| Penalties | 3-24 | 11-111 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 3 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 26:20 | 33:40 |
Model projected WIS 25.51 – 18.09 MD at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.0%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Ryan Hopkins · WIS
11/22 C/ATT · 77 YDSCardell Williams · MD
21/23 C/ATT · 183 YDSDarrion Dupree · WIS
14 CAR · 57 YDSDeJuan Williams · MD
22 CAR · 72 YDSJaylon Domingeaux · WIS
2 REC · 28 YDSPreston Howard · MD
4 REC · 77 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Wisconsin vs Maryland pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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