Purdue Boilermakers at #16 Iowa Hawkeyes
Final · NBC
7–28
At lock: projected PUR 15.30–32.63 IOWA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 9:00 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3473498430
- Winner: Iowa (87%)
- Spread: PUR +17.5 covers (50%)
- Total: Over 47.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)13
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: PUR vs IOWA
The model
How this number was built
PUR 15.30–32.63 IOWA · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexIOWA +14.7 vs PUR +1.3 · pred margin +19.3
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +11.6 vs -1.9 · model IOWA 37.0–12.7 PUR
- Home field+3.0 pts to IOWA
- RecordIOWA 8-2 · PUR 3-7
- Market priorBlended 66% toward IOWA -19.5 / total 47.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUR | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| IOWA | 7 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 28 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 3:190–7
Hank Brown 1 Yd Run (Caden Buhr Kick)
- TDQ2 6:350–14
Tony Diaz 14 Yd Run (Caden Buhr Kick)
- TDQ2 1:497–14
George Burhenn 3 Yd pass from Ryan Browne (Jacobo Echeverria Lozano Kick)
- TDQ2 0:057–21
Braeden Jackson 44 Yd pass from Hank Brown (Caden Buhr Kick)
- TDQ3 11:077–28
Xavier Williams 48 Yd Run (Caden Buhr Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| PUR | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ryan Browne #15 | 14/23 | 158 | 6.9 | 1 | 1 | 56.7 |
 Evans Chuba #1 | 3/5 | 46 | 9.2 | 0 | 0 | 26.9 |
| Team | 17/28 | 204 | 7.3 | 1 | 1 | -- |
Rushing
| PUR | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fame Ijeboi #2 | 15 | 64 | 4.3 | 0 | 13 |
 Antonio Harris #22 | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 | 12 |
 Xavier Townsend #3 | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | 6 |
Ryan Browne #15 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | 8 |
Evans Chuba #1 | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 | 3 |
| Team | 28 | 99 | 3.5 | 0 | 13 |
Receiving
| PUR | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Asaad Waseem #19 | 6 | 93 | 15.5 | 0 | 34 |
Xavier Townsend #3 | 3 | 39 | 13.0 | 0 | 17 |
Fame Ijeboi #2 | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 | 15 |
 Bisi Owens #17 | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 | 14 |
 Tra'Mar Harris #11 | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 | 14 |
 De'Nylon Morrissette #8 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 8 |
Antonio Harris #22 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
 George Burhenn #81 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Team | 17 | 204 | 12.0 | 1 | 34 |
Fumbles
| PUR | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Ryan Browne #15 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Defense
| PUR | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Charles Correa #5 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 John Slaughter #13 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Justin Denson #21 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jojo Hayden #0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Smiley Bradford #1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Hudauri Hines #4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tre Moore #47 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Keyshawn Burgos #11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Anthony Speca #16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Don Saunders #7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ian Jeffries #40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Josiah Hope #99 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jeremy Lewis #33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Curt Neal #92 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 CJ Madden #8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 TJ Lindsey #9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Breeon Ishmail #58 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mister Clark #6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Luke Raab #46 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Hudson Miller #25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaxon Ott #51 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 79 | 39 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| PUR | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Travis Terrell Jr. #20 | 3 | 55 | 18.3 | 22 | 0 |
 Izaiah Wright #24 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Team | 4 | 57 | 14.3 | 22 | 0 |
Kicking
| PUR | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacobo Echeverria Lozano #92 | 0/1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 |
| Team | 0/1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 |
Punting
| PUR | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dylan Drennan #42 | 3 | 121 | 40.3 | 0 | 2 | 53 |
| Team | 3 | 121 | 40.3 | 0 | 2 | 53 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| PUR | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 16 | 27 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 5-11 | 10-15 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Total Yards | 303 | 434 |
| Passing | 204 | 188 |
| Comp/Att | 17/28 | 20/29 |
| Yards per pass | 7.3 | 6.5 |
| Rushing | 99 | 246 |
| Rushing Attempts | 28 | 44 |
| Yards per rush | 3.5 | 5.6 |
| Penalties | 8-58 | 3-35 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
| Possession | 24:46 | 35:14 |
Model projected PUR 15.30 – 32.63 IOWA at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.9%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Ryan Browne · PUR
14/23 C/ATT · 158 YDSHank Brown · IOWA
20/29 C/ATT · 188 YDSFame Ijeboi · PUR
15 CAR · 64 YDSL.J. Phillips Jr. · IOWA
23 CAR · 123 YDSAsaad Waseem · PUR
6 REC · 93 YDSBraeden Jackson · IOWA
4 REC · 61 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Purdue vs Iowa pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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