#15 USC Trojans at #6 Indiana Hoosiers
Final · CBS
13–27
At lock: projected USC 20.76–29.62 IU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 3:20 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3490276049
- Winner: Indiana (71%)
- Spread: IU -8.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Over 50.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)11
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: USC vs IU
The model
How this number was built
USC 20.76–29.62 IU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexIU +21.4 vs USC +14.8 · pred margin +10.2
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +15.9 vs +8.0 · model IU 33.3–17.8 USC
- Home field+3.0 pts to IU
- RecordIU 9-1 · USC 7-3
- Market priorBlended 66% toward IU -9.5 / total 51.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| IU | 7 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 27 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 8:180–7
Brock Schott 13 Yd pass from Grant Wilson (Nico Radicic Kick)
- FGQ1 2:023–7
Caden Chittenden 29 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ2 1:453–10
Nico Radicic 21 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 0:2110–10
Zacharyus Williams 7 Yd pass from Jayden Maiava (Caden Chittenden Kick)
- FGQ3 10:0210–13
Nico Radicic 24 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ3 4:2713–13
Caden Chittenden 25 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 2:3913–20
Khobie Martin 1 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)
- TDQ4 3:3013–27
Charlie Becker 42 Yd pass from Grant Wilson (Nico Radicic Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| USC | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jayden Maiava #14 | 26/42 | 311 | 7.4 | 1 | 3 | 83.0 |
| Team | 26/42 | 311 | 7.4 | 1 | 3 | -- |
Rushing
| USC | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Waymond Jordan #2 | 13 | 51 | 3.9 | 0 | 12 |
 King Miller #8 | 12 | 47 | 3.9 | 0 | 19 |
| Team | 25 | 98 | 3.9 | 0 | 19 |
Receiving
| USC | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Trent Mosley #4 | 9 | 130 | 14.4 | 0 | 34 |
 Kayden Dixon-Wyatt #17 | 1 | 51 | 51.0 | 0 | 51 |
 Mark Bowman #19 | 6 | 47 | 7.8 | 0 | 21 |
King Miller #8 | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 | 17 |
 Taniela Tupou #88 | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 | 17 |
 Zacharyus Williams #0 | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 1 | 7 |
 Tanook Hines #16 | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | 8 |
Waymond Jordan #2 | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | 8 |
 Ethan Feaster #1 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
| Team | 26 | 311 | 12.0 | 1 | 51 |
Fumbles
| USC | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Mark Bowman #19 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Defense
| USC | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Desman Stephens II #8 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Deven Bryant #17 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Alex VanSumeren #91 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Alex Graham #7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Christian Pierce #6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kennedy Urlacher #9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jide Abasiri #97 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Luke Wafle #94 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Braylan Shelby #10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Kameryn Crawford #1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Chasen Johnson #27 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ta'Mere Robinson #14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Prophet Brown #16 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Elbert Hill IV #2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tomuhini Topui #52 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Peyton Dyer #36 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jahkeem Stewart #4 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Jayden Maiava #14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jontez Williams #0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaimeon Winfield #45 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Waymond Jordan #2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Shahn Alston #22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 67 | 37 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Interceptions
| USC | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Deven Bryant #17 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Punt returns
| USC | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trent Mosley #4 | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 9 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 9 | 0 |
Kicking
| USC | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Caden Chittenden #45 | 2/3 | 67.0 | 29 | 1/1 | 7 |
 Ryon Sayeri #48 | 0/1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0/0 | 0 |
| Team | 2/4 | 50.0 | 29 | 1/1 | 7 |
Punting
| USC | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lachlan Carrigan #35 | 3 | 135 | 45.0 | 0 | 1 | 49 |
| Team | 3 | 135 | 45.0 | 0 | 1 | 49 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| USC | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 21 | 18 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 2-11 | 7-13 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Total Yards | 409 | 451 |
| Passing | 311 | 305 |
| Comp/Att | 26/42 | 17/27 |
| Yards per pass | 7.4 | 11.3 |
| Rushing | 98 | 146 |
| Rushing Attempts | 25 | 35 |
| Yards per rush | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| Penalties | 8-87 | 8-60 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 3 | 1 |
| Possession | 30:12 | 29:48 |
Model projected USC 20.76 – 29.62 IU at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -0.1%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Jayden Maiava · USC
26/42 C/ATT · 311 YDSGrant Wilson · IU
17/27 C/ATT · 305 YDSWaymond Jordan · USC
13 CAR · 51 YDSKhobie Martin · IU
12 CAR · 82 YDSTrent Mosley · USC
9 REC · 130 YDSNick Marsh · IU
4 REC · 80 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
USC vs Indiana pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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