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Board/NCAAF
NCAAFFinalOhio Stadium

#18 Oregon Ducks at #21 Ohio State Buckeyes

Final · CBS

Oregon41–28Ohio State
OregonOhio State
Final
#18Oregon Ducks
6-3 · W3
338 PF · 206 PA
41
Final
Final
#21Ohio State Buckeyes
6-3 · W1
349 PF · 184 PA
28
ORE 29%OSU 71%

At lock: projected ORE 19.90–29.02 OSU

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 3:10 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3423165573

Missed · off by 22
Most typical sim
ORE 20 – OSU 29
Final
ORE 41 – OSU 28
  • Winner: Ohio State (72%)
  • Spread: OSU -7.5 covers (53%)
  • Total: Over 46.5 (61%)
  • Score error (both teams)22

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: ORE vs OSU

The model

How this number was built

ORE 19.90–29.02 OSU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

  • Power index
    OSU +24.3 vs ORE +19.7 · pred margin +7.5
  • Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
    Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +14.2 vs +11.5 · model OSU 29.9–22.5 ORE
  • Home field
    +3.0 pts to OSU
  • Record
    OSU 6-3 · ORE 6-3
  • Market prior
    Blended 66% toward OSU -7.5 / total 44.5
Full write-up of the model

Line score

Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORE017141041
OSU14001428

How the points were scored

  • TDQ1 9:560–7

    Bo Jackson 16 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)

  • TDQ1 1:200–14

    Bo Jackson 8 Yd Run (Connor Hawkins Kick)

  • FGQ2 11:263–14

    Gage Hurych 33 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ2 1:2510–14

    Dierre Hill Jr. 9 Yd Run (Gage Hurych Kick)

  • TDQ2 0:0017–14

    Jamari Johnson 2 Yd Run (Gage Hurych Kick)

  • TDQ3 13:1124–14

    Dierre Hill Jr. 48 Yd Run (Gage Hurych Kick)

  • TDQ3 6:3731–14

    Dakorien Moore 11 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Gage Hurych Kick)

  • TDQ4 12:0238–14

    Brandon Smith 15 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Gage Hurych Kick)

  • TDQ4 3:2538–22

    Jeremiah Smith 13 Yd pass from Luke Fahey (Luke Fahey Run for Two-Point Conversion)

  • FGQ4 1:0841–22

    Gage Hurych 40 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ4 0:4441–28

    Nate Roberts 15 Yd pass from Luke Fahey (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

OREC/ATTYDSAVGTDINTQBR
Dylan Raiola
#8
25/402576.42088.5
Teitum Tuioti
#44
1/13030.000--
Team26/412877.020--

Rushing

ORECARYDSAVGTDLONG
Dierre Hill Jr.
#6
13755.8248
Tradarian Ball
#4
6244.0015
Brandon Smith
#26
5122.407
Da'Jaun Riggs
#21
640.706
Jamari Johnson
#9
122.012
Team
2-9-4.500
Team331083.3348

Receiving

ORERECYDSAVGTDLONG
Dakorien Moore
#1
7568.0116
Brandon Smith
#26
35217.3131
Evan Stewart
#7
44711.8019
Jamari Johnson
#9
34214.0020
Dierre Hill Jr.
#6
4317.8020
Matayo Uiagalelei
#10
13030.0030
Jalen Lott
#10
22110.5013
Jeremiah McClellan
#3
155.005
Da'Jaun Riggs
#21
133.003
Team2628711.0231

Fumbles

OREFUMLOSTREC
Team
100
Team100

Defense

ORETOTSOLOSACKSTFLPDQB HURTD
Devon Jackson
#9
8603000
Dylan Williams
#11
8100000
Ify Obidegwu
#7
7701000
Koi Perich
#3
5501000
Jerry Mixon
#6
4300000
Gavin Nix
#13
4200000
Peyton Woodyard
#12
3200000
Davon Benjamin
#5
3200000
Brandon Finney Jr.
#4
3201000
Devin Jackson
#22
3100000
Teitum Tuioti
#44
2201000
Matayo Uiagalelei
#10
211.51.5100
Trey McNutt
#8
2100000
Bear Alexander
#1
2000000
D'Antre Robinson
#0
2000100
Jett Washington
#24
2000000
Gatlin Bair
#13
1100000
A'Mauri Washington
#52
1000000
Aydin Breland
#42
1000000
Aaron Scott Jr.
#14
1000000
Zach Grisham
#33
1000000
Nasir Wyatt
#31
100.50.5000
Will Straton
#38
1000000
Xavier Lherisse
#20
1000000
Na'eem Offord
#2
0000200
Team683629400

Interceptions

OREINTYDSTD
Devin Jackson
#22
100
Team100

Punt returns

ORENOYDSAVGLONGTD
Dakorien Moore
#1
2147.0100
Team2147.0100

Kicking

OREFGPCTLONGXPPTS
Gage Hurych
#97
2/367.0405/511
Team2/366.7405/511

Punting

ORENOYDSAVGTBIn 20LONG
Bailey Ettridge
#39
522244.41449
Team522244.41449

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

OREOSU
1st Downs2223
3rd down efficiency8-176-14
4th down efficiency1-10-4
Total Yards395413
Passing287360
Comp/Att26/4136/50
Yards per pass7.07.2
Rushing10853
Rushing Attempts3321
Yards per rush3.32.5
Penalties5-327-40
Turnovers01
Fumbles lost00
Interceptions thrown01
Possession30:0129:59
Computer pick · Spread
OSU -7
53%

At lock ORE 19.90–29.02 OSU · OSU by 9.1 pts vs OSU -7 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss
Players

  • Dylan Raiola · ORE

    25/40 C/ATT · 257 YDS

  • Luke Fahey · OSU

    36/50 C/ATT · 360 YDS

  • Dierre Hill Jr. · ORE

    13 CAR · 75 YDS

  • Bo Jackson · OSU

    11 CAR · 48 YDS

  • Dakorien Moore · ORE

    7 REC · 56 YDS

  • Jeremiah Smith · OSU

    7 REC · 133 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Oregon vs Ohio State pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is OSU -7, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day

Overline Sports

Projections blend power-index ratings with DraftKings lines. Every game carries a computer pick and a tagged DK prop; closed games are graded against those pre-game leans. Statistical estimates, not betting advice. Live scores, clocks, and team pages from ESPN.

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