#16 Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats
Final · Fox
24–10
At lock: projected IOWA 21.43–23.37 NU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 7:14 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3305722240
- Winner: Northwestern (55%)
- Spread: NU -2.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 45.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)17
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: IOWA vs NU
The model
How this number was built
IOWA 21.43–23.37 NU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexNU +12.3 vs IOWA +14.7 · pred margin -2.3
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +6.8 vs +11.6 · model NU 19.9–24.0 IOWA
- Home field+3.0 pts to NU
- RecordNU 6-3 · IOWA 7-2
- Market priorBlended 66% toward IOWA -3 / total 42.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IOWA | 7 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 24 |
| NU | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 11:107–0
Hank Brown 21 Yd Run (Caden Buhr Kick)
- TDQ2 13:2514–0
Tony Diaz 24 Yd pass from Hank Brown (Caden Buhr Kick)
- FGQ3 4:1414–3
Jackson Kleather 45 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 4:0321–3
Braeden Jackson 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Caden Buhr Kick)
- FGQ3 1:0824–3
Caden Buhr 52 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 1:5124–10
Joseph Himon II 2 Yd pass from Nicco Marchiol (Jackson Kleather Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| IOWA | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hank Brown #9 | 16/21 | 126 | 6.0 | 1 | 1 | 86.0 |
| Team | 16/21 | 126 | 6.0 | 1 | 1 | -- |
Rushing
| IOWA | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 L.J. Phillips Jr. #21 | 21 | 128 | 6.1 | 0 | 45 |
Hank Brown #9 | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 1 | 21 |
 Braeden Jackson #22 | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 | 13 |
 Xavier Williams #26 | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | 4 |
 Nathan McNeil #5 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 |
T Tony Diaz #14 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
Team | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 33 | 170 | 5.2 | 1 | 45 |
Receiving
| IOWA | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T Tony Diaz #14 | 2 | 43 | 21.5 | 1 | 24 |
 Reece Vander Zee #2 | 3 | 36 | 12.0 | 0 | 13 |
L.J. Phillips Jr. #21 | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 |
 Thomas Meyer #85 | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | 11 |
 DJ Vonnahme #81 | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | 8 |
 Addison Ostrenga #87 | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | 6 |
Xavier Williams #26 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 |
Braeden Jackson #22 | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 16 | 126 | 7.9 | 1 | 24 |
Fumbles
| IOWA | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
T Tony Diaz #14 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
L.J. Phillips Jr. #21 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Defense
| IOWA | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cam Buffington #33 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jayden Montgomery #36 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jacob Wallace #11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Xavier Styles #18 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Bryce Hawthorne #96 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Deshaun Lee #8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Zach Lutmer #6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Landyn Van Kekerix #23 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Kahmari Brown #43 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Drew Campbell #13 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Rashad Godfrey Jr. #7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Luke Gaffney #51 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Will Hubert #57 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Kenneth Merrieweather #44 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Iose Epenesa #97 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaylen Watson #3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
D Darion Jones #1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zach Ortwerth #48 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Derek Weisskopf #22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
DJ Vonnahme #81 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Braeden Jackson #22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 79 | 51 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
Kick returns
| IOWA | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Braeden Jackson #22 | 1 | 96 | 96.0 | 96 | 1 |
| Team | 1 | 96 | 96.0 | 96 | 1 |
Punt returns
| IOWA | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
E Evan James #8 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
Kicking
| IOWA | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Caden Buhr #92 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 52 | 3/3 | 6 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 52 | 3/3 | 6 |
Punting
| IOWA | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B Boston Everitt #49 | 3 | 121 | 40.3 | 0 | 1 | 43 |
| Team | 3 | 121 | 40.3 | 0 | 1 | 43 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| IOWA | NU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 14 | 19 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 7-13 | 1-11 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-0 | 1-4 |
| Total Yards | 296 | 286 |
| Passing | 126 | 181 |
| Comp/Att | 16/21 | 24/32 |
| Yards per pass | 6.0 | 5.7 |
| Rushing | 170 | 105 |
| Rushing Attempts | 33 | 37 |
| Yards per rush | 5.2 | 2.8 |
| Penalties | 5-45 | 3-20 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
| Possession | 28:13 | 31:47 |
At lock IOWA 21.43–23.37 NU · NU by 1.9 pts vs IOWA +2.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitHank Brown · IOWA
16/21 C/ATT · 126 YDSNicco Marchiol · NU
24/32 C/ATT · 181 YDSL.J. Phillips Jr. · IOWA
21 CAR · 128 YDSTony Diaz · IOWA
2 REC · 43 YDSGriffin Wilde · NU
5 REC · 52 YDSCam Buffington · IOWA
12 TOT · 8 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Iowa vs Northwestern pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is IOWA +2.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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