NCAAFFinalHuntington Bank Stadium

#4 UCLA Bruins at Minnesota Golden Gophers

Final · Fox

34–20

UCLAMinnesota

Final

#4UCLA Bruins

9-0 · W10

324 PF · 141 PA

Final

Minnesota Golden Gophers

5-4 · L3

236 PF · 240 PA

UCLA 61%MINN 39%

At lock: projected UCLA 23.36–18.85 MINN

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 11:17 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3322499859

Winner called · off by 12

Most typical sim

UCLA 23 – MINN 19

Final

UCLA 34 – MINN 20

Winner: UCLA (61%)
Spread: MINN +5.5 covers (52%)
Total: Over 38.5 (66%)
Score error (both teams)12

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: UCLA vs MINN

The model

How this number was built

UCLA 23.36–18.85 MINN · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
MINN +1.8 vs UCLA +12.7 · pred margin -4.6
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +2.8 vs +7.8 · model MINN 20.8–25.2 UCLA
Home field
+3.0 pts to MINN
Record
MINN 5-4 · UCLA 9-0
Market prior
Blended 66% toward UCLA -3.5 / total 37.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
UCLA	10	0	7	17	34
MINN	0	10	0	10	20

How the points were scored

FGQ1 12:203–0
Mateen Bhaghani 37 Yd Field Goal
TDQ1 4:4810–0
Wayne Knight 1 Yd Run (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)
TDQ2 9:4710–7
Darius Taylor 3 Yd Run (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)
FGQ2 0:0010–10
Luke Drzewiecki 38 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 9:0717–10
Noah Fox-Flores 27 Yd pass from Ty Dieffenbach (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)
TDQ4 12:5017–17
George Rohl 4 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)
TDQ4 12:4124–17
Aidan Mizell 75 Yd pass from Ty Dieffenbach (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)
FGQ4 7:3124–20
Luke Drzewiecki 36 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 7:2131–20
Aidan Mizell 75 Yd pass from Ty Dieffenbach (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)
FGQ4 3:1834–20
Mateen Bhaghani 36 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

UCLA	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Ty Dieffenbach #14	8/16	303	18.9	3	1	88.0
Team	8/16	303	18.9	3	1	--

Rushing

UCLA	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Wayne Knight #3	18	109	6.1	1	31
Anthony Woods #6	11	29	2.6	0	7
Ty Dieffenbach #14	6	27	4.5	0	18
Jaivian Thomas #21	1	1	1.0	0	1
Team	3	-3	-1.0	0	0
Team	39	163	4.2	1	31

Receiving

UCLA	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Aidan Mizell #1	2	150	75.0	2	75
Semaj Morgan #4	1	54	54.0	0	54
Wayne Knight #3	1	28	28.0	0	28
Noah Fox-Flores #82	1	27	27.0	1	27
Brian Rowe Jr. #2	1	26	26.0	0	26
Leland Smith #0	1	13	13.0	0	13
Jaivian Thomas #21	1	5	5.0	0	5
Team	8	303	37.9	3	75

Fumbles

UCLA	FUM	LOST	REC
Ty Dieffenbach #14	1	1	0
Team	1	1	0

Defense

UCLA	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Jalen Woods #9	11	8	0	0	1
Derrick Barksdale #32	7	5	0	1	0
Dante Lovett #21	6	4	0	1	0
Scooter Jackson #1	5	5	0	2	0
Ta'Shawn James #27	4	3	0	1	0
Scott Taylor #20	4	3	1	0	1
Sammy Omosigho #10	3	2	0	2	1
Darold DeNgohe #92	3	2	1	0	1
Donavyn Pellot #0	3	1	0	0	0
Malik Hartford #12	2	1	0.5	0	0
A.J. Fuimaono #55	2	1	0	0	0
Tyson Ford #95	1	1	0	0	0
Aiden Gobaira #97	1	1	0	0	0
Trent Hendrick #25	1	1	0	0	0
Jensen Somerville #66	1	1	0	0	0
Mateen Bhaghani #15	1	1	0	0	0
Noah Fox-Flores #82	1	1	0	0	0
Amier Washington #90	1	0	0	0	0
Drew Spinogatti #56	1	0	0	0	0
Sahir West #15	1	0	0.5	0	2
Shane Rosenthal #20	1	0	0	0	0
Jhase McMillan #23	1	0	0	0	0
Tao Johnson #6	0	0	0	1	0
Cole Cogshell #24	0	0	0	0	2
Team	61	41	3	8	8

Interceptions

UCLA	INT	YDS	TD
Scooter Jackson #1	1	0	0
Team	1	0	0

Punt returns

UCLA	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Troy Leigber #32	1	17	17.0	17
Semaj Morgan #4	1	2	2.0	2
Team	2	19	9.5	17

Kicking

UCLA	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Mateen Bhaghani #15	2/2	100.0	37	4/4	10
Team	2/2	100.0	37	4/4	10

Punting

UCLA	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Chase Barry #45	3	136	45.3	1	0	58
Team	3	136	45.3	1	0	58

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	UCLA	MINN
1st Downs	15	14
3rd down efficiency	6-13	4-15
4th down efficiency	0-1	1-1
Total Yards	466	296
Passing	303	205
Comp/Att	8/16	19/37
Yards per pass	18.9	5.5
Rushing	163	91
Rushing Attempts	39	29
Yards per rush	4.2	3.1
Penalties	6-55	4-40
Turnovers	2	1
Fumbles lost	1	0
Interceptions thrown	1	1
Possession	27:08	32:52

Computer pick · Spread

MINN +6.5

53%

At lock UCLA 23.36–18.85 MINN · UCLA by 4.5 pts vs MINN +6.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Ty Dieffenbach · UCLA
8/16 C/ATT · 303 YDS
Drake Lindsey · MINN
19/37 C/ATT · 205 YDS
Wayne Knight · UCLA
18 CAR · 109 YDS
Darius Taylor · MINN
14 CAR · 46 YDS
Aidan Mizell · UCLA
2 REC · 150 YDS
Jalen Smith · MINN
5 REC · 85 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

UCLA vs Minnesota pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is MINN +6.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day