NCAAFSat 6:30 PM CTCamp Randall Stadium

#16 USC Trojans at Wisconsin Badgers

TV · NBC

Sat 6:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

USC -3

50%

USC 26.27–23.22 WIS

#16USC Trojans

6-1 · W2 · computer pick

255 PF · 176 PA

26.27

Projected

Wisconsin Badgers

4-2 · L1

165 PF · 100 PA

23.22

USC 57%WIS 43%

Projected USC 26.27–23.22 WIS

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

USC -3.2

USC -3.0

Total

49.5

Gap: -0.2 margin, -0.0 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: USC vs WIS

The model

How this number was built

USC 26.27–23.22 WIS · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
WIS +9.0 vs USC +14.9 · pred margin -3.1
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +3.5 vs +8.0 · model WIS 22.9–26.6 USC
Home field
+3.0 pts to WIS
Record
WIS 4-2 · USC 6-1
Market prior
Blended 68% toward USC -3 / total 49.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jayden Maiava
Pass 152/224, 2045 YDS, 18 TD, 3 INT
King Miller
Rush 114 CAR, 595 YDS, 4 TD
Kayden Dixon-Wyatt
Rec 27 REC, 400 YDS, 4 TD

Colton Joseph
Pass 87/159, 1198 YDS, 10 TD, 5 INT
Colton Joseph
Rush 69 CAR, 333 YDS, 4 TD
Tyrell Henry
Rec 27 REC, 343 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	USC	WIS
Points Per Game	36.4	27.5
Total Yards	462.4	351.8
Yards Passing	310.1	199.7
Yards Rushing	152.3	152.2
Points Allowed Per Game	25.1	16.7
Yards Allowed	350.0	286.7
Pass Yards Allowed	239.0	171.2
Rush Yards Allowed	111.0	115.5

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

USC vs Wisconsin prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is USC -3, with a 50% model probability. The model projects USC 26.3, Wisconsin 23.2. Model win probability: Wisconsin 43%, USC 57%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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