NCAAFSat 2:30 PM CTRose Bowl

Michigan State Spartans at #9 UCLA Bruins

TV · CBS

Sat 2:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

MSU +14

52%

MSU 16.32–29.68 UCLA

Michigan State Spartans

2-5 · L5 · computer pick

149 PF · 178 PA

16.32

Projected

#9UCLA Bruins

6-0 · W6

213 PF · 97 PA

29.68

MSU 20%UCLA 80%

Projected MSU 16.32–29.68 UCLA

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

UCLA -12.0

UCLA -14.0

Total

47.0

45.5

Gap: -2.0 margin, +1.5 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: MSU vs UCLA

The model

How this number was built

MSU 16.32–29.68 UCLA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
UCLA +11.0 vs MSU +1.7 · pred margin +13.4
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +4.8 vs -0.4 · model UCLA 31.0–19.6 MSU
Home field
+3.0 pts to UCLA
Record
UCLA 6-0 · MSU 2-5
Market prior
Blended 68% toward UCLA -14 / total 45.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Alessio Milivojevic
Pass 121/185, 1263 YDS, 7 TD, 3 INT
Jaziun Patterson
Rush 76 CAR, 327 YDS, 5 TD
Jayden Savoury
Rec 27 REC, 261 YDS

Nico Iamaleava
Pass 72/116, 982 YDS, 4 TD, 4 INT
Wayne Knight
Rush 84 CAR, 571 YDS, 11 TD
Semaj Morgan
Rec 24 REC, 313 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MSU	UCLA
Points Per Game	21.3	35.5
Total Yards	310.7	445.8
Yards Passing	191.6	214.8
Yards Rushing	119.1	231.0
Points Allowed Per Game	25.4	16.2
Yards Allowed	342.6	292.3
Pass Yards Allowed	201.9	194.7
Rush Yards Allowed	140.7	97.7

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Michigan St vs UCLA prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is MSU +14, with a 52% model probability. The model projects Michigan St 16.3, UCLA 29.7. Model win probability: UCLA 80%, Michigan St 20%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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