NCAAFSat 2:30 PM CTHuntington Bank Stadium

#15 Iowa Hawkeyes at Minnesota Golden Gophers

TV · FS1

Sat 2:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

IOWA -7

52%

IOWA 24.54–16.64 MINN

#15Iowa Hawkeyes

5-1 · W1 · computer pick

186 PF · 87 PA

24.54

Projected

Minnesota Golden Gophers

4-2 · L1

173 PF · 131 PA

16.64

IOWA 69%MINN 31%

Projected IOWA 24.54–16.64 MINN

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

IOWA -9.8

IOWA -7.0

Total

42.6

40.5

Gap: -2.8 margin, +2.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: IOWA vs MINN

The model

How this number was built

IOWA 24.54–16.64 MINN · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
MINN -0.2 vs IOWA +13.1 · pred margin -7.9
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +2.5 vs +10.0 · model MINN 19.4–28.0 IOWA
Home field
+3.0 pts to MINN
Record
MINN 4-2 · IOWA 5-1
Market prior
Blended 68% toward IOWA -7 / total 40.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Hank Brown
Pass 78/124, 832 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT
Kamari Moulton
Rush 76 CAR, 519 YDS, 4 TD
Tony Diaz
Rec 28 REC, 329 YDS, 1 TD

Drake Lindsey
Pass 127/196, 1335 YDS, 9 TD, 5 INT
TJ Thomas
Rush 51 CAR, 317 YDS, 1 TD
Javon Tracy
Rec 32 REC, 375 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	IOWA	MINN
Points Per Game	31.0	28.8
Total Yards	403.2	341.3
Yards Passing	209.2	236.5
Yards Rushing	194.0	104.8
Points Allowed Per Game	14.5	21.8
Yards Allowed	293.3	288.8
Pass Yards Allowed	208.7	159.7
Rush Yards Allowed	84.7	129.2

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Iowa vs Minnesota prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is IOWA -7, with a 52% model probability. The model projects Iowa 24.5, Minnesota 16.6. Model win probability: Minnesota 31%, Iowa 69%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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