NCAAFSat 2:00 PM CTGies Memorial Stadium

Oregon Ducks at Illinois Fighting Illini

TV · BTN

Sat 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

ORE -10

51%

ORE 30.95–20.94 ILL

Oregon Ducks

4-2 · W1 · computer pick

222 PF · 124 PA

30.95

Projected

Illinois Fighting Illini

3-3 · W1

191 PF · 167 PA

20.94

ORE 73%ILL 27%

Projected ORE 30.95–20.94 ILL

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

ORE -11.1

ORE -9.5

Total

52.7

51.5

Gap: -1.6 margin, +1.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: ORE vs ILL

The model

How this number was built

ORE 30.95–20.94 ILL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
ILL +4.4 vs ORE +19.0 · pred margin -10.0
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +3.0 vs +11.3 · model ILL 22.9–32.6 ORE
Home field
+3.0 pts to ILL
Record
ILL 3-3 · ORE 4-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward ORE -9.5 / total 51.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Dante Moore
Pass 69/99, 926 YDS, 9 TD
Jordon Davison
Rush 74 CAR, 330 YDS, 6 TD
Evan Stewart
Rec 27 REC, 352 YDS, 4 TD

Katin Houser
Pass 122/184, 1440 YDS, 12 TD, 4 INT
Aidan Laughery
Rush 62 CAR, 391 YDS, 1 TD
Collin Dixon
Rec 47 REC, 608 YDS, 9 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ORE	ILL
Points Per Game	37.0	31.8
Total Yards	422.7	405.5
Yards Passing	283.0	254.7
Yards Rushing	139.7	150.8
Points Allowed Per Game	20.7	27.8
Yards Allowed	327.3	375.2
Pass Yards Allowed	215.7	248.3
Rush Yards Allowed	111.7	126.8

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Oregon vs Illinois prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is ORE -10, with a 51% model probability. The model projects Oregon 30.9, Illinois 20.9. Model win probability: Illinois 27%, Oregon 73%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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