Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Maryland Terrapins
Final · BTN
Model: RUTG 25.84–30.13 MD
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3081942888
- Winner: Maryland (61%)
- Spread: RUTG +5.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 56.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)12
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: RUTG vs MD
The model
How this number was built
RUTG 25.84–30.13 MD · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexMD -3.6 vs RUTG -3.1 · pred margin +4.3
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -1.7 vs +0.2 · model MD 30.3–29.9 RUTG
- Home field+3.0 pts to MD
- RecordMD 2-5 · RUTG 2-4
- Market priorBlended 68% toward MD -5.5 / total 55.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUTG | 7 | 6 | 17 | 7 | 37 |
| MD | 7 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 30 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 7:300–7
Damon Hall Jr. 1 Yd Run (Sean O'Haire Kick)
- TDQ1 0:507–7
KJ Duff 15 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Dane Pizzaro Kick)
- TDQ2 10:467–14
Dorian Fleming 3 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)
- TDQ2 4:1813–14
KJ Duff 9 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Dane Pizzaro PAT blocked)
- D2PQ2 4:1813–16
Jamare Glasker Defensive PAT Conversion
- TDQ2 0:5313–23
Chris Durr Jr. 16 Yd Run (Sean O'Haire Kick)
- FGQ3 10:4316–23
Dane Pizzaro 25 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 4:0023–23
Clay Thevenin 19 Yd pass from Dylan Lonergan (Dane Pizzaro Kick)
- TDQ4 12:5230–23
Clay Thevenin 7 Yd Run (Dane Pizzaro Kick)
- TDQ4 4:0337–23
Antwan Raymond 2 Yd Run (Dane Pizzaro Kick)
- TDQ4 2:1737–30
DeJuan Williams 10 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| RUTG | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dylan Lonergan #12 | 23/35 | 291 | 8.3 | 3 | 1 | 78.9 |
| Team | 23/35 | 291 | 8.3 | 3 | 1 | -- |
Rushing
| RUTG | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Clay Thevenin #9 | 17 | 109 | 6.4 | 1 | 22 |
 Antwan Raymond #3 | 16 | 29 | 1.8 | 1 | 6 |
Dylan Lonergan #12 | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 | 7 |
Team | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 39 | 151 | 3.9 | 2 | 22 |
Receiving
| RUTG | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KJ Duff #8 | 9 | 113 | 12.6 | 2 | 26 |
 Dyzier Carter #0 | 6 | 88 | 14.7 | 0 | 23 |
Antwan Raymond #3 | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 | 17 |
 Vernon Allen III #5 | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 | 17 |
Clay Thevenin #9 | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 1 | 19 |
 Elias Coke #13 | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | 11 |
 Logan Blake #11 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 23 | 291 | 12.7 | 3 | 26 |
Fumbles
| RUTG | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Lonergan #12 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Defense
| RUTG | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sean Allison #41 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jesse Ofurie #16 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Chris Joines #20 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Bradlee Jones #5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 Sage Clawges #27 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Moses Walker #2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kevyn Humes #4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Sekou Kromah #8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Malachi Davis #11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Abram Wright #6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 DK Gilley #9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zaire Angoy #55 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Sah'nye Degraffenreidt #14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Rondo Porter #99 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Trent Osborn #25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Latrell Noel #3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 DJ Allen #42 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 JJ Conyers #25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 46 | 28 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| RUTG | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ben Black III #2 | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 25 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 25 | 0 |
Kicking
| RUTG | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dane Pizzaro #29 | 1/2 | 50.0 | 25 | 4/5 | 7 |
| Team | 1/2 | 50.0 | 25 | 4/5 | 7 |
Punting
| RUTG | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jakob Anderson #94 | 2 | 75 | 37.5 | 0 | 0 | 38 |
| Team | 2 | 75 | 37.5 | 0 | 0 | 38 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| RUTG | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 28 | 19 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 9-14 | 4-13 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-1 | 3-4 |
| Total Yards | 442 | 378 |
| Passing | 291 | 263 |
| Comp/Att | 23/35 | 19/38 |
| Yards per pass | 8.3 | 6.9 |
| Rushing | 151 | 115 |
| Rushing Attempts | 39 | 26 |
| Yards per rush | 3.9 | 4.4 |
| Penalties | 4-39 | 4-39 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
| Possession | 35:52 | 24:08 |
RUTG 25.81–30.13 MD
MissPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Rutgers vs Maryland pick result · Oct 17, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 57.5, with a 54% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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