Stanford Cardinal at Virginia Tech Hokies
Final · ACC Network
40–22
At lock: projected STAN 21.14–36.87 VT
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 9:00 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3446128903
- Winner: Virginia Tech (84%)
- Spread: VT -15.5 covers (50%)
- Total: Over 57.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)34
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: STAN vs VT
The model
How this number was built
STAN 21.14–36.87 VT · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexVT +4.8 vs STAN -10.0 · pred margin +17.7
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +3.6 vs -6.2 · model VT 37.1–18.5 STAN
- Home field+3.0 pts to VT
- RecordVT 6-4 · STAN 5-5
- Market priorBlended 66% toward VT -17.5 / total 57.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STAN | 7 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 40 |
| VT | 0 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 22 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 2:337–0
Davis Warren 16 Yd Run (Emmet Kenney Kick)
- TDQ2 9:0614–0
Micah Ford 3 Yd Run (Emmet Kenney Kick)
- TDQ2 7:4021–0
Micah Ford 5 Yd Run (Emmet Kenney Kick)
- TDQ2 1:5321–7
Jeffrey Overton Jr. 2 Yd Run (John Love Kick)
- FGQ2 0:1024–7
Emmet Kenney 31 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 6:1524–14
Davion Brown 69 Yd pass from Ethan Grunkemeyer (John Love Kick)
- FGQ3 0:3627–14
Emmet Kenney 46 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ4 11:5830–14
Emmet Kenney 49 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 8:2737–14
Micah Ford 2 Yd Run (Emmet Kenney Kick)
- TDQ4 6:1437–22
Que'Sean Brown 9 Yd pass from Ethan Grunkemeyer (Ethan Grunkemeyer Pass to Luke Reynolds for Two-Point Conversion)
- FGQ4 2:1440–22
Emmet Kenney 23 Yd Field Goal
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| STAN | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Davis Warren #8 | 16/31 | 203 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 68.6 |
| Team | 16/31 | 203 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| STAN | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Micah Ford #20 | 27 | 149 | 5.5 | 3 | 38 |
 Sedrick Irvin #26 | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 | 19 |
Davis Warren #8 | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 1 | 16 |
 Champ Hampton #34 | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 | 7 |
| Team | 41 | 233 | 5.7 | 4 | 38 |
Receiving
| STAN | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Benji Blackburn #88 | 3 | 63 | 21.0 | 0 | 30 |
 Caden High #0 | 5 | 60 | 12.0 | 0 | 18 |
 Nico Brown #23 | 5 | 47 | 9.4 | 0 | 17 |
 JonAnthony Hall #11 | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 0 | 18 |
Micah Ford #20 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 16 | 203 | 12.7 | 0 | 30 |
Fumbles
| STAN | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
 Jay Green #5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Defense
| STAN | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Charlie Eckhardt #39 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Sam Mattingly #10 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Jay Green #5 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 Darrius Davis #6 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Gabe Kaminski #49 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Connor Bachhuber #96 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jahsiah Galvan #0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tevarua Tafiti #11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Leroy Bryant #4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Braden Marceau-Olayinka #75 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Drew Cunningham #48 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Tre Williams #36 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kole Briehler #57 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Adam Shovlin #95 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dre Pollard #14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zach Rowell #97 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Aaron Morris #31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Omar Staples #45 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaylen'Dai Sumlin #3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Lucas Shanafelt #41 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Sarrel Howard #52 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Benedict Umeh #99 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 71 | 31 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Interceptions
| STAN | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Charlie Eckhardt #39 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| STAN | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Darrius Davis #6 | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 11 | 0 |
Punt returns
| STAN | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liam Thorpe #13 | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 20 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 20 | 0 |
Kicking
| STAN | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Emmet Kenney #13 | 4/4 | 100.0 | 49 | 4/4 | 16 |
| Team | 4/4 | 100.0 | 49 | 4/4 | 16 |
Punting
| STAN | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aidan Flintoft #37 | 3 | 107 | 35.7 | 0 | 1 | 47 |
| Team | 3 | 107 | 35.7 | 0 | 1 | 47 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| STAN | VT | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 21 | 18 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 5-14 | 7-17 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-2 | 3-5 |
| Total Yards | 436 | 398 |
| Passing | 203 | 270 |
| Comp/Att | 16/31 | 17/34 |
| Yards per pass | 6.5 | 7.9 |
| Rushing | 233 | 128 |
| Rushing Attempts | 41 | 39 |
| Yards per rush | 5.7 | 3.3 |
| Penalties | 3-30 | 5-24 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 3 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 2 |
| Possession | 33:21 | 26:39 |
Model projected STAN 21.14 – 36.87 VT at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.4%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Davis Warren · STAN
16/31 C/ATT · 203 YDSEthan Grunkemeyer · VT
17/34 C/ATT · 270 YDSMicah Ford · STAN
27 CAR · 149 YDSJeffrey Overton Jr. · VT
19 CAR · 107 YDSBenji Blackburn · STAN
3 REC · 63 YDSDavion Brown · VT
2 REC · 81 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Stanford vs Virginia Tech pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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