Louisville Cardinals at North Carolina Tar Heels
Final · ESPN2
16–14
At lock: projected LOU 31.33–27.84 UNC
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 9:00 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3429351284
- Winner: Louisville (59%)
- Spread: UNC +3.5 covers (50%)
- Total: Over 58.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)29
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: LOU vs UNC
The model
How this number was built
LOU 31.33–27.84 UNC · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexUNC +9.3 vs LOU +14.9 · pred margin -3.5
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +3.6 vs +9.2 · model UNC 24.7–30.1 LOU
- Home field+3.0 pts to UNC
- RecordUNC 5-5 · LOU 7-3
- Market priorBlended 66% toward LOU -3.5 / total 57.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 3 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 16 |
| UNC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ1 10:213–0
Carson Hilbert 46 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ1 4:543–7
Benjamin Hall 11 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)
- FGQ2 14:166–7
Carson Hilbert 32 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 12:1513–7
Jaleel Skinner 3 Yd pass from Lincoln Kienholz (Carson Hilbert Kick)
- FGQ4 7:2816–7
Carson Hilbert 36 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 3:4316–14
Benjamin Hall 6 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| LOU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lincoln Kienholz #3 | 23/31 | 154 | 5.0 | 1 | 0 | 40.7 |
| Team | 23/31 | 154 | 5.0 | 1 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| LOU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Keyjuan Brown #5 | 11 | 78 | 7.1 | 0 | 16 |
 Isaac Brown #1 | 12 | 59 | 4.9 | 0 | 13 |
Lincoln Kienholz #3 | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 0 | 9 |
Team | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 33 | 148 | 4.5 | 0 | 16 |
Receiving
| LOU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lawayne McCoy #7 | 6 | 64 | 10.7 | 0 | 26 |
 TreyShun Hurry #2 | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 | 11 |
 Jaleel Skinner #88 | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 1 | 13 |
 Tre Richardson #0 | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 | 6 |
Keyjuan Brown #5 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
 Terrence McWilliams Jr. #18 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
Isaac Brown #1 | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 23 | 154 | 6.7 | 1 | 26 |
Fumbles
| LOU | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Isaac Brown #1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Joshua Donald #95 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Defense
| LOU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stanquan Clark #6 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jabari Mack #1 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Koen Entringer #5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Clev Lubin #50 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Tayon Holloway #13 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kaleb Beasley #10 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Tyler Thompson #3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 T.J. Capers #11 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Benjamin Perry #23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tommy Ziesmer #96 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jerod Smith II #99 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Joshua Donald #95 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Demeco Kennedy #2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 TJ Banks #4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 55 | 33 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Interceptions
| LOU | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Jabari Mack #1 | 1 | 32 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 32 | 0 |
Kicking
| LOU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Carson Hilbert #35 | 3/4 | 75.0 | 46 | 1/1 | 10 |
| Team | 3/4 | 75.0 | 46 | 1/1 | 10 |
Punting
| LOU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N Niall Hayes #91 | 5 | 185 | 37.0 | 0 | 2 | 45 |
| Team | 5 | 185 | 37.0 | 0 | 2 | 45 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| LOU | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 19 | 17 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 5-13 | 7-14 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Total Yards | 302 | 293 |
| Passing | 154 | 179 |
| Comp/Att | 23/31 | 16/25 |
| Yards per pass | 5.0 | 7.2 |
| Rushing | 148 | 114 |
| Rushing Attempts | 33 | 33 |
| Yards per rush | 4.5 | 3.5 |
| Penalties | 7-75 | 6-55 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
| Possession | 31:57 | 28:03 |
Model projected LOU 31.33 – 27.84 UNC at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -2.4%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Lincoln Kienholz · LOU
23/31 C/ATT · 154 YDSBilly Edwards Jr. · UNC
10/14 C/ATT · 120 YDSKeyjuan Brown · LOU
11 CAR · 78 YDSBenjamin Hall · UNC
10 CAR · 48 YDSLawayne McCoy · LOU
6 REC · 64 YDSJelani Thurman · UNC
5 REC · 72 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Louisville vs North Carolina pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day