Duke Blue Devils at #5 Miami Hurricanes
Final · ABC
25–36
At lock: projected DUKE 21.26–33.67 MIA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 12:40 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3261575094
- Winner: Miami (78%)
- Spread: DUKE +13.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 54.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)6
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: DUKE vs MIA
The model
How this number was built
DUKE 21.26–33.67 MIA · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexMIA +25.9 vs DUKE +12.4 · pred margin +14.2
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +15.7 vs +11.2 · model MIA 33.5–23.2 DUKE
- Home field+3.0 pts to MIA
- RecordMIA 9-1 · DUKE 7-3
- Market priorBlended 66% toward MIA -14 / total 55.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | 0 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 25 |
| MIA | 0 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 36 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ2 14:430–3
Jake Weinberg 39 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ2 9:273–3
Gavin Strange 37 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 5:473–10
Mark Fletcher Jr. 4 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)
- TDQ2 3:1710–10
Nate Sheppard 47 Yd Run (Gavin Strange Kick)
- FGQ2 0:3710–13
Jake Weinberg 26 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ3 9:4810–16
Jake Weinberg 24 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 2:4310–22
Javian Mallory 63 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
- TDQ3 0:4117–22
Nate Sheppard 5 Yd Run (Gavin Strange Kick)
- TDQ4 8:0617–29
Javian Mallory 2 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)
- TDQ4 4:2117–36
Javian Mallory 39 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)
- TDQ4 0:2125–36
Jeremiah Hasley 1 Yd pass from Walker Eget (Walker Eget Pass to Nate Sheppard for Two-Point Conversion)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| DUKE | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Walker Eget #2 | 26/42 | 195 | 4.6 | 1 | 1 | 55.9 |
 Nate Sheppard #20 | 2/2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| Team | 28/44 | 211 | 4.8 | 1 | 1 | -- |
Rushing
| DUKE | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nate Sheppard #20 | 16 | 131 | 8.2 | 2 | 47 |
Team | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 17 | 130 | 7.6 | 2 | 47 |
Receiving
| DUKE | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nate Sheppard #20 | 12 | 93 | 7.8 | 0 | 22 |
 Jonah Burton #6 | 4 | 46 | 11.5 | 0 | 18 |
 Jeremiah Hasley #85 | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 1 | 18 |
 Javen Nicholas #5 | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 | 13 |
 Jaivon Solomon #4 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
 Jared Richardson #17 | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 28 | 211 | 7.5 | 1 | 22 |
Defense
| DUKE | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Evan Smith #4 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Andrew Pellicciotta #35 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nick Morris Jr. #7 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Bradley Gompers #24 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dylan Flowers #0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kendall Johnson #42 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kobe Smith #18 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Landan Callahan #3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 DaShawn Stone #8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kyon Loud #1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tyshon Reed #10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Preston Watson #95 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Luke Mergott #34 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Owen Wafle #91 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Semaj Turner #43 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kevin O'Connor #15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Bryce Davis #12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brody Keefe #18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Julius Columbus #55 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 72 | 38 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| DUKE | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CJ Campbell Jr. #0 | 1 | 32 | 32.0 | 32 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 32 | 32.0 | 32 | 0 |
Punt returns
| DUKE | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KD Cotton #21 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 6 | 0 |
Kicking
| DUKE | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
G Gavin Strange #25 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 37 | 2/2 | 5 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 37 | 2/2 | 5 |
Punting
| DUKE | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kade Reynoldson #41 | 4 | 167 | 41.8 | 1 | 1 | 56 |
| Team | 4 | 167 | 41.8 | 1 | 1 | 56 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| DUKE | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 19 | 26 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 5-12 | 6-12 |
| 4th down efficiency | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Total Yards | 341 | 532 |
| Passing | 211 | 382 |
| Comp/Att | 28/44 | 30/41 |
| Yards per pass | 4.8 | 9.3 |
| Rushing | 130 | 150 |
| Rushing Attempts | 17 | 32 |
| Yards per rush | 7.6 | 4.7 |
| Penalties | 4-18 | 10-67 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
| Possession | 25:47 | 34:13 |
Model projected DUKE 21.26 – 33.67 MIA at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.3%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Walker Eget · DUKE
26/42 C/ATT · 195 YDSDarian Mensah · MIA
30/41 C/ATT · 382 YDSNate Sheppard · DUKE
16 CAR · 131 YDSJavian Mallory · MIA
10 CAR · 71 YDSCooper Barkate · MIA
8 REC · 134 YDSEvan Smith · DUKE
11 TOT · 6 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Duke vs Miami pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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