North Carolina Tar Heels at UConn Huskies
Final · CBSSN
38–21
At lock: projected UNC 28.93–25.20 CONN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 11:17 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3328685570
- Winner: North Carolina (60%)
- Spread: CONN +7 covers (55% vs 40%, push 5%)
- Total: Under 54.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)13
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: UNC vs CONN
The model
How this number was built
UNC 28.93–25.20 CONN · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexCONN -6.1 vs UNC +9.3 · pred margin -7.4
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +3.9 vs +3.6 · model CONN 29.2–25.5 UNC
- Home field+3.0 pts to CONN
- RecordCONN 4-5 · UNC 5-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward UNC -7.5 / total 55.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | 7 | 21 | 3 | 7 | 38 |
| CONN | 0 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 5:297–0
Timir Hickman-Collins 62 Yd Interception Return (Rece Verhoff Kick)
- TDQ2 13:427–7
Ryder Treadway 18 Yd pass from Kalieb Osborne (Jack O'Connor Kick)
- TDQ2 10:0514–7
Benjamin Hall 39 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)
- TDQ2 7:4121–7
Jordan Shipp 6 Yd pass from Billy Edwards Jr. (Rece Verhoff Kick)
- TDQ2 6:3321–14
Cam Abshire 24 Yd pass from Kalieb Osborne (Jack O'Connor Kick)
- TDQ2 0:2428–14
Jelani Thurman 3 Yd pass from Billy Edwards Jr. (Rece Verhoff Kick)
- TDQ3 10:0228–21
Cyncir Bowers 13 Yd Run (Jack O'Connor Kick)
- FGQ3 6:0531–21
Rece Verhoff 27 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 3:3838–21
Jelani Thurman 3 Yd pass from Billy Edwards Jr. (Rece Verhoff Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| UNC | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Billy Edwards Jr. #9 | 29/38 | 255 | 6.7 | 3 | 1 | 67.1 |
| Team | 29/38 | 255 | 6.7 | 3 | 1 | -- |
Rushing
| UNC | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Benjamin Hall #7 | 9 | 81 | 9.0 | 1 | 39 |
 Demon June #0 | 15 | 60 | 4.0 | 0 | 12 |
 Jaylen McGill #27 | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 | 5 |
Billy Edwards Jr. #9 | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 | 9 |
Team | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 36 | 164 | 4.6 | 1 | 39 |
Receiving
| UNC | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jelani Thurman #45 | 7 | 64 | 9.1 | 2 | 20 |
 Jordan Shipp #1 | 5 | 55 | 11.0 | 1 | 18 |
Demon June #0 | 2 | 31 | 15.5 | 0 | 23 |
 Trech Kekahuna #2 | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 | 15 |
Benjamin Hall #7 | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 | 8 |
Jaylen McGill #27 | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 | 7 |
 Jaden Jefferson #24 | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 | 15 |
 Carson Sneed #87 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 8 |
 Nyqir Helton #17 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
 Shamar Easter #84 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Team | 29 | 255 | 8.8 | 3 | 23 |
Fumbles
| UNC | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
 Timir Hickman-Collins #54 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Defense
| UNC | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Peyton Seelmann #10 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
 Derek McDonald #15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Kaleb Cost #2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Leroy Jackson #91 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Isaiah Johnson #0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Melkart Abou Jaoude #9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Javion Butts #24 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Coleman Bryson #16 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jalon Thompson #4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaiden Patterson #18 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Greg Smith III #1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nicco Maggio #96 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Timir Hickman-Collins #54 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 Calvin Thomas #12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaylen Harvey #11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Donovan Hoilette Jr. #5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Emmanuel Nwaiwu #89 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Xavier Lewis #90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 55 | 31 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
Interceptions
| UNC | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Timir Hickman-Collins #54 | 1 | 62 | 1 |
Jalon Thompson #4 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 68 | 1 |
Kick returns
| UNC | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jaden Jefferson #24 | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 14 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 14 | 0 |
Kicking
| UNC | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rece Verhoff #90 | 1/2 | 50.0 | 27 | 5/5 | 8 |
| Team | 1/2 | 50.0 | 27 | 5/5 | 8 |
Punting
| UNC | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aeron Burrell #92 | 3 | 126 | 42.0 | 0 | 1 | 47 |
| Team | 3 | 126 | 42.0 | 0 | 1 | 47 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UNC | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 23 | 19 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 9-16 | 7-16 |
| 4th down efficiency | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Total Yards | 419 | 368 |
| Passing | 255 | 245 |
| Comp/Att | 29/38 | 17/35 |
| Yards per pass | 6.7 | 7.0 |
| Rushing | 164 | 123 |
| Rushing Attempts | 36 | 31 |
| Yards per rush | 4.6 | 4.0 |
| Penalties | 6-50 | 3-27 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 3 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 2 |
| Possession | 36:23 | 23:37 |
At lock UNC 28.93–25.20 CONN · UNC by 3.7 pts vs CONN +7 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
MissBilly Edwards Jr. · UNC
29/38 C/ATT · 255 YDSKalieb Osborne · CONN
17/35 C/ATT · 245 YDSBenjamin Hall · UNC
9 CAR · 81 YDSCyncir Bowers · CONN
13 CAR · 68 YDSJelani Thurman · UNC
7 REC · 64 YDSRyder Treadway · CONN
4 REC · 82 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
North Carolina vs UConn pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CONN +7, with a 54% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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