NCAAFFinalAlumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)

Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles

Final · ACC Network

31–24

Florida StBoston College

Final

Florida State Seminoles

4-5 · W2

292 PF · 265 PA

Final

Boston College Eagles

4-5 · L3

204 PF · 284 PA

FSU 64%BC 36%

At lock: projected FSU 29.39–23.73 BC

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 11:17 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3513386474

Called it

Most typical sim

FSU 30 – BC 24

Final

FSU 31 – BC 24

Winner: Florida St (64%)
Spread: BC +6.5 covers (50%)
Total: Over 52.5 (53%)
Score error (both teams)1

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: FSU vs BC

The model

How this number was built

FSU 29.39–23.73 BC · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
BC -3.7 vs FSU +8.5 · pred margin -6.5
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.0 vs +4.8 · model BC 22.7–30.1 FSU
Home field
+3.0 pts to BC
Record
BC 4-5 · FSU 4-5
Market prior
Blended 66% toward FSU -5.5 / total 53.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
FSU	0	21	0	10	31
BC	10	7	7	0	24

How the points were scored

TDQ1 7:380–7
Bo MacCormack III 6 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)
FGQ1 3:210–10
Luca Lombardo 48 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 14:067–10
Ashton Daniels 4 Yd Run (Gabe Panikowski Kick)
TDQ2 9:247–17
Nedrick Boldin Jr. 29 Yd pass from Mason McKenzie (Luca Lombardo Kick)
TDQ2 6:0314–17
Amari Thomas 20 Yd Run (Gabe Panikowski Kick)
TDQ2 0:5121–17
Gabe Panikowski 1 Yd Run (Gabe Panikowski Kick)
TDQ3 4:1121–24
Javarius Green 2 Yd pass from Mason McKenzie (Luca Lombardo Kick)
FGQ4 13:2224–24
Gabe Panikowski 22 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 2:2931–24
Amari Thomas 11 Yd Run (Gabe Panikowski Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

FSU	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Ashton Daniels #14	15/26	178	6.8	0	1	64.4
Team	15/26	178	6.8	0	1	--

Rushing

FSU	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Amari Thomas #24	19	98	5.2	2	20
Quintrevion Wisner #5	12	58	4.8	0	16
Ashton Daniels #14	10	38	3.8	1	9
Micahi Danzy #8	1	11	11.0	0	11
Gabe Panikowski #39	1	1	1.0	1	1
Team	2	-4	-2.0	0	0
Team	45	202	4.5	4	20

Receiving

FSU	REC	YDS	AVG	LONG
Micahi Danzy #8	7	86	12.3	23
Jasen Lopez #7	4	54	13.5	30
Jayvan Boggs #15	2	18	9.0	13
Desirrio Riles #6	1	11	11.0	11
Amari Thomas #24	1	9	9.0	9
Team	15	178	11.9	30

Defense

FSU	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Ashlynd Barker #7	10	7	0	0	0	0
Chris Jones #10	8	6	0	0	0	0
Rylan Kennedy #15	6	4	0	0	1	0
Omar Graham Jr. #9	5	2	0	1	0	0
CJ Richard Jr. #11	4	3	0	0	1	0
Ja'Bril Rawls #6	3	1	0	1	1	0
Ma'Khi Jones #14	3	1	0	0	0	0
Deamontae Diggs #13	2	2	0	0	0	0
K.J. Kirkland #24	2	2	0	0	0	0
Daniel Lyons #5	2	1	0	0	0	0
Mandrell Desir #3	2	1	0	0	0	0
Jalen Anderson #32	2	1	0	0	0	1
Darryll Desir #1	1	1	1	1	0	0
AJ Cottrill #41	1	1	0	0	0	0
Nehemiah Chandler #12	1	1	0	0	2	0
Cam Brooks #91	1	1	0	1	0	0
Zay Parks #21	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team	54	36	1	4	5	1

Interceptions

FSU	INT	YDS
Nehemiah Chandler #12	1	30
Ja'Bril Rawls #6	1	0
Team	2	30

Kick returns

FSU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Devin Carter #11	3	59	19.7	24	0
Team	3	59	19.7	24	0

Punt returns

FSU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Jasen Lopez #7	2	47	23.5	40	0
Team	2	47	23.5	40	0

Kicking

FSU	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Gabe Panikowski #39	1/1	100.0	22	4/4	7
Team	1/1	100.0	22	4/4	7

Punting

FSU	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Ethan Post #85	3	131	43.7	0	0	49
Team	3	131	43.7	0	0	49

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	FSU	BC
1st Downs	22	19
3rd down efficiency	8-14	8-14
4th down efficiency	1-1	0-1
Total Yards	380	320
Passing	178	172
Comp/Att	15/26	17/31
Yards per pass	6.8	5.5
Rushing	202	148
Rushing Attempts	45	30
Yards per rush	4.5	4.9
Penalties	6-68	6-45
Turnovers	1	2
Fumbles lost	0	0
Interceptions thrown	1	2
Possession	30:18	29:42

Computer pick · Spread

BC +6.5

51%

At lock FSU 29.39–23.73 BC · FSU by 5.7 pts vs BC +6.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Ashton Daniels · FSU
15/26 C/ATT · 178 YDS
Mason McKenzie · BC
15/27 C/ATT · 166 YDS
Amari Thomas · FSU
19 CAR · 98 YDS
Bo MacCormack III · BC
16 CAR · 105 YDS
Micahi Danzy · FSU
7 REC · 86 YDS
Nedrick Boldin Jr. · BC
2 REC · 49 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Florida St vs Boston College pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is BC +6.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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