Louisville Cardinals at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Final · ACC Network
44–17
At lock: projected LOU 36.63–23.60 GT
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 7:15 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3278499808
- Winner: Louisville (79%)
- Spread: GT +14.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 62.5 (58%)
- Score error (both teams)14
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: LOU vs GT
The model
How this number was built
LOU 36.63–23.60 GT · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexGT -4.5 vs LOU +14.9 · pred margin -14.8
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -1.6 vs +9.2 · model GT 23.1–36.7 LOU
- Home field+3.0 pts to GT
- RecordGT 2-7 · LOU 6-3
- Market priorBlended 66% toward LOU -14.5 / total 62.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOU | 10 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 44 |
| GT | 3 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ1 11:063–0
Carson Hilbert 42 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ1 6:193–3
Aidan Birr 32 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ1 3:2610–3
Tre Richardson 8 Yd pass from Lincoln Kienholz (Carson Hilbert Kick)
- TDQ2 12:3117–3
TreyShun Hurry 4 Yd pass from Lincoln Kienholz (Carson Hilbert Kick)
- TDQ2 10:0024–3
Tre Richardson 52 Yd Run (Carson Hilbert Kick)
- FGQ2 0:5627–3
Carson Hilbert 23 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 0:1027–10
Isaiah Fuhrmann 10 Yd pass from Alberto Mendoza (Aidan Birr Kick)
- FGQ3 7:1730–10
Carson Hilbert 29 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 5:4237–10
Isaac Brown 11 Yd Run (Carson Hilbert Kick)
- TDQ4 4:1537–17
Chris Corbo 11 Yd pass from Grady Adamson (Aidan Birr Kick)
- TDQ4 1:5644–17
Braxton Jennings 2 Yd Run (Carson Hilbert Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| LOU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lincoln Kienholz #3 | 17/25 | 182 | 7.3 | 2 | 0 | 78.8 |
 Davin Wydner #11 | 1/1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| Team | 18/26 | 205 | 7.9 | 2 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| LOU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lincoln Kienholz #3 | 9 | 81 | 9.0 | 0 | 27 |
 Keyjuan Brown #5 | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 0 | 14 |
 Tre Richardson #0 | 1 | 52 | 52.0 | 1 | 52 |
 Isaac Brown #1 | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 1 | 11 |
 Braxton Jennings #32 | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 1 | 10 |
 Marquise Davis #24 | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 | 3 |
Team | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 36 | 251 | 7.0 | 3 | 52 |
Receiving
| LOU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TreyShun Hurry #2 | 8 | 104 | 13.0 | 1 | 32 |
Tre Richardson #0 | 4 | 52 | 13.0 | 1 | 24 |
 Jaleel Skinner #88 | 3 | 39 | 13.0 | 0 | 18 |
Keyjuan Brown #5 | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | 5 |
Isaac Brown #1 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Team | 18 | 205 | 11.4 | 2 | 32 |
Fumbles
| LOU | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
 Jackson Voth #14 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Defense
| LOU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stanquan Clark #6 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kalib Perry #52 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Benjamin Perry #23 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Kaleb Beasley #10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Tyler Thompson #3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Cam White #38 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 T.J. Capers #11 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Clev Lubin #50 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jabari Mack #1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jerod Smith II #99 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Koen Entringer #5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Joshua Donald #95 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 TJ Banks #4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Blake Ruffin #29 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tayon Holloway #13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tommy Ziesmer #96 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Demeco Kennedy #2 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 AJ Green #17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 DJ Waller Jr. #12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Daylen Russell #90 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dillon Smith #94 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Eric Hazzard #40 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Antonio Harris #20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
M Marlon Harbin #45 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Bailey Abercrombie #93 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Drew Kegebein #54 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 75 | 39 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
Interceptions
| LOU | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
 Micah Rice #31 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| LOU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Keyjuan Brown #5 | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 14 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 14 | 0 |
Punt returns
| LOU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jackson Voth #14 | 3 | 81 | 27.0 | 68 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 81 | 27.0 | 68 | 0 |
Kicking
| LOU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Carson Hilbert #35 | 3/3 | 100.0 | 42 | 5/5 | 14 |
| Team | 3/3 | 100.0 | 42 | 5/5 | 14 |
Punting
| LOU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N Niall Hayes #91 | 2 | 78 | 39.0 | 0 | 1 | 43 |
| Team | 2 | 78 | 39.0 | 0 | 1 | 43 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| LOU | GT | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 22 | 23 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 2-9 | 4-17 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-0 | 3-7 |
| Total Yards | 456 | 350 |
| Passing | 205 | 241 |
| Comp/Att | 18/26 | 25/45 |
| Yards per pass | 7.9 | 5.4 |
| Rushing | 251 | 109 |
| Rushing Attempts | 36 | 32 |
| Yards per rush | 7.0 | 3.4 |
| Penalties | 6-73 | 6-40 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
| Possession | 30:15 | 29:45 |
At lock LOU 36.63–23.60 GT · LOU by 13.0 pts vs GT +14.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissLincoln Kienholz · LOU
17/25 C/ATT · 182 YDSAlberto Mendoza · GT
13/25 C/ATT · 148 YDSJustice Haynes · GT
12 CAR · 87 YDSTreyShun Hurry · LOU
8 REC · 104 YDSDalen Penson · GT
5 REC · 66 YDSStanquan Clark · LOU
8 TOT · 2 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Louisville vs Georgia Tech pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is GT +14.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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