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Board/NCAAF
NCAAFFinalCarter-Finley Stadium

Duke Blue Devils at NC State Wolfpack

Final · CW

Duke41–3NC State
DukeNC State
Final
Duke Blue Devils
7-2 · L1
322 PF · 153 PA
41
Final
Final
NC State Wolfpack
4-5 · L2
291 PF · 282 PA
3
DUKE 60%NCSU 40%

At lock: projected DUKE 28.40–24.29 NCSU

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 11:55 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3295277427

Winner called · off by 33
Most typical sim
DUKE 29 – NCSU 24
Final
DUKE 41 – NCSU 3
  • Winner: Duke (60%)
  • Spread: DUKE -4 covers (50% vs 49%, push 2%)
  • Total: Over 51.5 (55%)
  • Score error (both teams)33

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: DUKE vs NCSU

The model

How this number was built

DUKE 28.40–24.29 NCSU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

  • Power index
    NCSU -1.3 vs DUKE +12.4 · pred margin -6.7
  • Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
    Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +1.7 vs +11.2 · model NCSU 21.4–32.9 DUKE
  • Home field
    +3.0 pts to NCSU
  • Record
    NCSU 4-5 · DUKE 7-2
  • Market prior
    Blended 66% toward DUKE -4.5 / total 53.5
Full write-up of the model

Line score

Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DUKE7247341
NCSU30003

How the points were scored

  • TDQ1 14:127–0

    N. Sheppard run for 69 yds, for a TD (G. Strange KICK)

  • FGQ1 10:267–3

    K. Vinesett 39 yd FG GOOD

  • TDQ2 12:0414–3

    N. Sheppard run for 8 yds, for a TD (G. Strange KICK)

  • FGQ2 3:1417–3

    G. Strange 25 yd FG GOOD

  • TDQ2 0:2624–3

    W. Eget pass to J. Solomon for 18 yds, for a TD (G. Strange KICK)

  • TDQ2 0:0031–3

    K. Vinesett 50 yd FG missed short, A. Pellicciotta returns 100 yds for a TD (G. Strange KICK)

  • TDQ3 3:5238–3

    N. Sheppard run for 4 yds, for a TD (G. Strange KICK)

  • FGQ4 5:1341–3

    G. Strange 46 yd FG GOOD

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

DUKEC/ATTYDSAVGTDINTQBR
Walker Eget
#2
22/312086.71085.3
Dan Mahan
#10
2/4153.80017.3
Team24/352236.410--

Rushing

DUKECARYDSAVGTDLONG
Nate Sheppard
#20
1821712.1369
Jayvian Tanelus
#22
9202.209
CJ Campbell Jr.
#0
362.005
CJ Givers
#26
331.004
Team
1-1-1.000
Dan Mahan
#10
1-7-7.000
Team352386.8369

Receiving

DUKERECYDSAVGTDLONG
Jaivon Solomon
#4
57114.2120
Jonah Burton
#6
55210.4015
Javen Nicholas
#5
3299.7011
Jayden Moore
#8
2168.0010
Jeremiah Hasley
#85
4164.006
Brody Keefe
#18
11111.0011
Blake Rohrer
#3
11010.0010
Jared Richardson
#17
188.008
Jake Taylor
#15
166.006
Nate Sheppard
#20
144.004
Team242239.3120

Defense

DUKETOTSOLOSACKSTFLPDQB HURTD
Nick Morris Jr.
#7
6301000
Luke Mergott
#34
5300000
Bradley Gompers
#24
5200000
Andrew Pellicciotta
#35
3300000
Preston Watson
#95
3211000
Kendall Johnson
#42
3200000
Dylan Flowers
#0
3100100
Bryce Davis
#12
3000.5000
Tyshon Reed
#10
3000000
DaShawn Stone
#8
2200000
Will Felder Jr.
#30
2200000
Leon Griffin III
#6
2100000
Patrick Smith-Young
#2
2100000
Kyon Loud
#1
2100100
KD Cotton
#21
2100000
Owen Wafle
#91
2000.5000
Kobe Smith
#18
1111000
Landan Callahan
#3
1100000
Kaleb Lanier
#28
1100000
Sampson Onuoha
#93
1101000
C
Chadwicke Cannon Jr.
#50
1100000
Dakota Quinonez
#99
1000000
Che Ojarikre
#9
1000000
Jon Morris
#19
1000010
Kolbe Harmon
#23
1000000
Julius Columbus
#55
1000000
Lyrik Pettis
#37
1000100
Team592925310

Kick returns

DUKENOYDSAVGLONGTD
CJ Campbell Jr.
#0
23819.0200
Team23819.0200

Punt returns

DUKENOYDSAVGLONGTD
KD Cotton
#21
2105.090
Team2105.090

Kicking

DUKEFGPCTLONGXPPTS
G
Gavin Strange
#25
2/2100.0465/511
Team2/2100.0465/511

Punting

DUKENOYDSAVGTBIn 20LONG
Kade Reynoldson
#41
414636.51246
Team414636.51246

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

DUKENCSU
1st Downs2612
3rd down efficiency3-113-14
4th down efficiency2-21-3
Total Yards461217
Passing223185
Comp/Att24/3518/31
Yards per pass6.46.0
Rushing23832
Rushing Attempts3525
Yards per rush6.81.3
Penalties3-354-39
Turnovers00
Fumbles lost00
Interceptions thrown00
Possession35:5224:08
Computer pick · Total
Over 50.5
51%

At lock DUKE 28.40–24.29 NCSU · 2.2 pts over 50.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss
Players

  • Walker Eget · DUKE

    22/31 C/ATT · 208 YDS

  • CJ Bailey · NCSU

    15/24 C/ATT · 123 YDS

  • Nate Sheppard · DUKE

    18 CAR · 217 YDS

  • Davion Gause · NCSU

    8 CAR · 26 YDS

  • Jaivon Solomon · DUKE

    5 REC · 71 YDS

  • Amiri Acker · NCSU

    2 REC · 54 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Duke vs NC State pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 50.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day

Overline Sports

Projections blend power-index ratings with DraftKings lines. Every game carries a computer pick and a tagged DK prop; closed games are graded against those pre-game leans. Statistical estimates, not betting advice. Live scores, clocks, and team pages from ESPN.

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