NCAAFSat 6:00 PM CTMemorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)

Virginia Tech Hokies at Clemson Tigers

TV · ESPN

Sat 6:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 49.5

50%

VT 23.37–26.28 CLEM

Virginia Tech Hokies

5-2 · W1

260 PF · 148 PA

23.37

Projected

Clemson Tigers

4-2 · W1

134 PF · 129 PA

26.28

VT 43%CLEM 57%

Projected VT 23.37–26.28 CLEM

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

CLEM -2.7

CLEM -3.0

Total

49.9

49.5

Gap: -0.3 margin, +0.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: VT vs CLEM

The model

How this number was built

VT 23.37–26.28 CLEM · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
CLEM +6.5 vs VT +6.6 · pred margin +2.9
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +4.1 vs +4.6 · model CLEM 26.7–24.3 VT
Home field
+3.0 pts to CLEM
Record
CLEM 4-2 · VT 5-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward CLEM -3 / total 49.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Ethan Grunkemeyer
Pass 167/229, 1984 YDS, 15 TD, 2 INT
Jeffrey Overton Jr.
Rush 103 CAR, 613 YDS, 4 TD
Que'Sean Brown
Rec 46 REC, 616 YDS, 3 TD

Tait Reynolds
Pass 100/154, 943 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
Gideon Davidson
Rush 79 CAR, 430 YDS, 5 TD
Bryant Wesco Jr.
Rec 29 REC, 340 YDS

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	VT	CLEM
Points Per Game	37.1	22.3
Total Yards	449.7	340.7
Yards Passing	301.6	187.5
Yards Rushing	148.1	153.2
Points Allowed Per Game	21.1	21.5
Yards Allowed	314.7	330.8
Pass Yards Allowed	227.3	189.3
Rush Yards Allowed	87.4	141.5

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Virginia Tech vs Clemson prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 49.5, with a 50% model probability. The model projects Virginia Tech 23.4, Clemson 26.3. Model win probability: Clemson 57%, Virginia Tech 43%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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