NCAAFSat 6:30 PM CTKenan Stadium

Syracuse Orange at North Carolina Tar Heels

TV · ACC Network

Sat 6:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

UNC -8.5

51%

SYR 18.87–27.87 UNC

Syracuse Orange

2-4 · L2

190 PF · 154 PA

18.87

Projected

North Carolina Tar Heels

4-2 · W2 · computer pick

141 PF · 115 PA

27.87

SYR 29%UNC 71%

Projected SYR 18.87–27.87 UNC

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

UNC -10.0

UNC -8.5

Total

47.3

46.5

Gap: +1.5 margin, +0.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: SYR vs UNC

The model

How this number was built

SYR 18.87–27.87 UNC · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
UNC +8.7 vs SYR +0.5 · pred margin +9.0
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +2.0 vs -0.7 · model UNC 28.2–20.8 SYR
Home field
+3.0 pts to UNC
Record
UNC 4-2 · SYR 2-4
Market prior
Blended 68% toward UNC -8.5 / total 46.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Steve Angeli
Pass 57/104, 731 YDS, 4 TD, 5 INT
Tylik Hill
Rush 80 CAR, 431 YDS, 1 TD
Umari Hatcher
Rec 50 REC, 784 YDS, 7 TD

Billy Edwards Jr.
Pass 94/157, 1260 YDS, 9 TD, 5 INT
Benjamin Hall
Rush 57 CAR, 283 YDS
Jordan Shipp
Rec 33 REC, 441 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SYR	UNC
Points Per Game	31.7	23.5
Total Yards	449.8	329.8
Yards Passing	291.2	213.7
Yards Rushing	158.7	116.2
Points Allowed Per Game	25.7	19.2
Yards Allowed	330.3	359.0
Pass Yards Allowed	190.8	211.7
Rush Yards Allowed	139.5	147.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Syracuse vs North Carolina prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is UNC -8.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projects Syracuse 18.9, North Carolina 27.9. Model win probability: North Carolina 71%, Syracuse 29%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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