#9 Tennessee Volunteers at Texas A&M Aggies
Final · ESPN
22–7
At lock: projected TENN 23.10–20.57 TA&M
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 2:10 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1134293153
- Winner: Tennessee (56%)
- Spread: TENN -2.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 43.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)15
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: TENN vs TA&M
The model
How this number was built
TENN 23.10–20.57 TA&M · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexTA&M +13.0 vs TENN +18.5 · pred margin -1.9
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +7.4 vs +11.3 · model TA&M 23.2–26.0 TENN
- Home field+3.0 pts to TA&M
- RecordTA&M 4-6 · TENN 8-2
- Market priorBlended 66% toward TENN -1.5 / total 44.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TENN | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 22 |
| TA&M | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ1 5:323–0
Cooper Ranvier 23 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 12:363–7
KJ Edwards 25 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)
- FGQ2 6:016–7
Cooper Ranvier 30 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ3 1:219–7
Cooper Ranvier 32 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 9:3816–7
DaSaahn Brame 5 Yd pass from Faizon Brandon (Cooper Ranvier Kick)
- FGQ4 6:1819–7
Cooper Ranvier 44 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ4 2:4422–7
Cooper Ranvier 27 Yd Field Goal
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| TENN | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 George MacIntyre #12 | 13/17 | 109 | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | 38.2 |
 Faizon Brandon #11 | 1/1 | 5 | 5.0 | 1 | 0 | -- |
| Team | 14/18 | 114 | 6.3 | 1 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| TENN | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DeSean Bishop #18 | 34 | 97 | 2.9 | 0 | 9 |
 Javin Gordon #6 | 11 | 78 | 7.1 | 0 | 21 |
Faizon Brandon #11 | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 | 18 |
 DaSaahn Brame #7 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
Team | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
George MacIntyre #12 | 3 | -16 | -5.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 56 | 196 | 3.5 | 0 | 21 |
Receiving
| TENN | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mike Matthews #4 | 2 | 42 | 21.0 | 0 | 25 |
 Braylon Staley #14 | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 | 16 |
DaSaahn Brame #7 | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 1 | 6 |
 Radarious Jackson #3 | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 | 15 |
 TK Keys #5 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
Javin Gordon #6 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
DeSean Bishop #18 | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 14 | 114 | 8.1 | 1 | 25 |
Defense
| TENN | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TJ Metcalf #1 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Arion Carter #7 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Amare Campbell #0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jeremiah Telander #22 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Dejuan Lane #10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ty Redmond #4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Daevin Hobbs #5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jordan Norman #33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Edwin Spillman #13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Trent Thomas #82 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Qua Moss #6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Brayden Rouse #28 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 DJ Burks #42 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Josh Turbyville #94 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ethan Utley #17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mariyon Dye #9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 TJ White #51 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ryan Scott #50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Carson Gentle #35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Xavier Gilliam #2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 46 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Interceptions
| TENN | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
TJ Metcalf #1 | 1 | 37 | 0 |
Dejuan Lane #10 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 58 | 0 |
Punt returns
| TENN | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Qua Moss #6 | 2 | 33 | 16.5 | 33 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 33 | 16.5 | 33 | 0 |
Kicking
| TENN | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cooper Ranvier #28 | 5/5 | 100.0 | 44 | 1/1 | 16 |
| Team | 5/5 | 100.0 | 44 | 1/1 | 16 |
Punting
| TENN | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jackson Ross #98 | 5 | 238 | 47.6 | 0 | 0 | 51 |
| Team | 5 | 238 | 47.6 | 0 | 0 | 51 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TENN | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 18 | 8 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 5-17 | 2-11 |
| 4th down efficiency | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Total Yards | 310 | 179 |
| Passing | 114 | 93 |
| Comp/Att | 14/18 | 11/25 |
| Yards per pass | 6.3 | 3.7 |
| Rushing | 196 | 86 |
| Rushing Attempts | 56 | 19 |
| Yards per rush | 3.5 | 4.5 |
| Penalties | 3-25 | 4-39 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 2 |
| Possession | 42:11 | 17:49 |
Model projected TENN 23.10 – 20.57 TA&M at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -2.9%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
George MacIntyre · TENN
13/17 C/ATT · 109 YDSMarcel Reed · TA&M
9/22 C/ATT · 71 YDSDeSean Bishop · TENN
34 CAR · 97 YDSKJ Edwards · TA&M
7 CAR · 44 YDSMike Matthews · TENN
2 REC · 42 YDSMario Craver · TA&M
5 REC · 49 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Tennessee vs Texas A&M pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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