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Board/NCAAF
NCAAFFinalDavis Wade Stadium

Auburn Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Final · SEC Network

Auburn41–9Mississippi St
AuburnMississippi St
Final
Auburn Tigers
6-4 · W2
260 PF · 246 PA
41
Final
Final
Mississippi State Bulldogs
4-6 · L6
245 PF · 291 PA
9
AUB 54%MSST 46%

At lock: projected AUB 26.37–24.68 MSST

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 12:40 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1033627439

Winner called · off by 31
Most typical sim
AUB 26 – MSST 25
Final
AUB 41 – MSST 9
  • Winner: Auburn (55%)
  • Spread: AUB -2.5 covers (52%)
  • Total: Over 50.5 (53%)
  • Score error (both teams)31

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: AUB vs MSST

The model

How this number was built

AUB 26.37–24.68 MSST · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

  • Power index
    MSST +6.9 vs AUB +8.7 · pred margin -1.4
  • Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
    Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +0.9 vs +3.1 · model MSST 26.0–26.1 AUB
  • Home field
    +3.0 pts to MSST
  • Record
    MSST 4-6 · AUB 6-4
  • Market prior
    Blended 66% toward AUB -2.5 / total 51.5
Full write-up of the model

Line score

Q1Q2Q3Q4T
AUB101714041
MSST07029

How the points were scored

  • TDQ1 8:397–0

    Keshaun Singleton 26 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Alex McPherson Kick)

  • FGQ1 1:4410–0

    Alex McPherson 37 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ2 14:5110–7

    Sanfrisco Magee 34 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Kyle Ferrie Kick)

  • TDQ2 6:5217–7

    Byrum Brown 1 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)

  • TDQ2 4:2324–7

    Jeremiah Cobb 10 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)

  • FGQ2 0:0027–7

    Alex McPherson 31 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ3 9:1634–7

    Chas Nimrod 35 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Alex McPherson Kick)

  • TDQ3 5:5241–7

    Keshaun Singleton 42 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Alex McPherson Kick)

  • SFQ4 13:5441–9

    Team Safety

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

AUBC/ATTYDSAVGTDINTQBR
Byrum Brown
#17
19/262328.93143.8
Team
0/100.000--
Tristan Ti'a
#10
1/1-3-3.000--
Team20/282298.231--

Rushing

AUBCARYDSAVGTDLONG
Jeremiah Cobb
#23
10505.0110
Byrum Brown
#17
15392.6116
Bryson Washington
#30
7223.108
Omar Mabson II
#29
6183.007
Tristan Ti'a
#10
5132.608
Team431423.3216

Receiving

AUBRECYDSAVGTDLONG
Keshaun Singleton
#11
710314.7242
Chas Nimrod
#5
24120.5135
DeShawn Spencer
#9
33411.3018
Arlis Boardingham
#82
12828.0028
Omar Mabson II
#29
4123.0015
Jeremiah Cobb
#23
284.006
Jeremiah Koger
#4
133.003
Team2022911.5342

Fumbles

AUBFUMLOSTREC
Byrum Brown
#17
100
Rayshawn Pleasant
#4
001
Jared Smith
#41
001
Darrion Smith
#11
001
Cody Sigler
#94
001
Team104

Defense

AUBTOTSOLOSACKSTFLPDQB HURTD
Shadarius Toodle
#24
10312010
Da'Shawn Womack
#15
8412000
Eric Winters
#5
8400000
Michael Matthews-Canty
#51
8100.5000
Nate Johnson
#90
621.52000
Elijah Melendez
#9
6100000
AnQuon Fegans
#3
5200000
Jared Smith
#41
5201000
Kaleb Harris
#8
5000000
Jaquez Wilkes
#29
5000.5000
Darrion Smith
#11
4222100
Champ Anthony
#1
4200000
Jourdin Crawford
#95
4100.5000
Walter Mathis Jr.
#10
311.51.5000
Rayshawn Pleasant
#4
3100.5000
Malik Autry
#96
3000000
Blake Woodby
#12
2200100
Dallas Walker IV
#35
2000000
Fred Gaskin III
#23
2000000
Cody Sigler
#94
2000.5000
Jeremiah Cobb
#23
1100000
Coleman Granberry
#42
1100000
Andre Jordan Jr.
#22
1100000
Chris Murray
#13
1000000
Team9931713210

Punt returns

AUBNOYDSAVGLONGTD
Bryce Cain
#6
2126.0160
Team2126.0160

Kicking

AUBFGPCTLONGXPPTS
Alex McPherson
#38
2/367.0375/511
Team2/366.7375/511

Punting

AUBNOYDSAVGTBIn 20LONG
Hudson Kaak
#14
516833.60254
Team516833.60254

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

AUBMSST
1st Downs2117
3rd down efficiency4-143-16
4th down efficiency1-11-4
Total Yards371262
Passing229216
Comp/Att20/2817/28
Yards per pass8.27.7
Rushing14246
Rushing Attempts4346
Yards per rush3.31.0
Penalties9-687-58
Turnovers14
Fumbles lost04
Interceptions thrown10
Possession29:5530:05
Lean · SpreadNot a strong playMiss
MSST +2.5
-105 at lock50%

Model projected AUB 26.37 – 24.68 MSST at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -0.8%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

  • Byrum Brown · AUB

    19/26 C/ATT · 232 YDS

  • AJ Swann · MSST

    6/13 C/ATT · 138 YDS

  • Jeremiah Cobb · AUB

    10 CAR · 50 YDS

  • Fluff Bothwell · MSST

    12 CAR · 36 YDS

  • Keshaun Singleton · AUB

    7 REC · 103 YDS

  • Anthony Evans III · MSST

    4 REC · 89 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Auburn vs Mississippi St pick result · Nov 14, 2026

Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day

Overline Sports

Projections blend power-index ratings with DraftKings lines. Every game carries a computer pick and a tagged DK prop; closed games are graded against those pre-game leans. Statistical estimates, not betting advice. Live scores, clocks, and team pages from ESPN.

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