Florida Gators at #13 Kentucky Wildcats
Final · ESPN
21–14
At lock: projected FLA 24.77–27.91 UK
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 5:37 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1067182677
- Winner: Kentucky (58%)
- Spread: FLA +3.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Over 52.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)18
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: FLA vs UK
The model
How this number was built
FLA 24.77–27.91 UK · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexUK +11.2 vs FLA +12.5 · pred margin +2.8
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +3.5 vs +3.2 · model UK 28.9–25.1 FLA
- Home field+3.0 pts to UK
- RecordUK 7-3 · FLA 6-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward UK -3 / total 52.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 21 |
| UK | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 1:320–7
CJ Baxter 5 Yd pass from Kenny Minchey (Adam Zouagui Kick)
- SFQ2 2:062–7
Team Safety
- TDQ3 10:0610–7
Jadan Baugh 1 Yd Run (Aaron Philo Run for Two-Point Conversion)
- TDQ3 7:2010–14
Kenny Minchey 1 Yd Run (Adam Zouagui Kick)
- FGQ3 3:1613–14
Patrick Durkin 37 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 9:0821–14
Aaron Philo 2 Yd Run (Kahleil Jackson Pass to Dallas Wilson for Two-Point Conversion)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| FLA | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aaron Philo #12 | 16/24 | 119 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 | 83.6 |
| Team | 16/24 | 119 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| FLA | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Philo #12 | 15 | 102 | 6.8 | 1 | 28 |
 Jadan Baugh #13 | 18 | 69 | 3.8 | 1 | 12 |
 Duke Clark #20 | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 | 21 |
 London Montgomery #24 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 |
 Eric Singleton Jr. #2 | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
Team | 4 | -5 | -1.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 48 | 211 | 4.4 | 2 | 28 |
Receiving
| FLA | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bailey Stockton #3 | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 | 12 |
 Amir Jackson #7 | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 | 21 |
 Dallas Wilson #6 | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 | 10 |
 Luke Harpring #15 | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | 12 |
 Kahleil Jackson #22 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 8 |
Eric Singleton Jr. #2 | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | 5 |
Jadan Baugh #13 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 |
 Lacota Dippre #17 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
 TJ Abrams #4 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
Duke Clark #20 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 16 | 119 | 7.4 | 0 | 21 |
Fumbles
| FLA | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Brendan Bett #90 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Defense
| FLA | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ben Hanks III #12 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Aaron Chiles #8 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Myles Graham #5 | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jayden Woods #0 | 6 | 2 | 1.5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Alfonzo Allen Jr. #43 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Brendan Bett #90 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Emmanuel Oyebadejo #99 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 DJ Coleman #33 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ty Jackson #7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kanye Clark #20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jeramiah McCloud #91 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Drake Stubbs #9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cormani McClain #25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Cam Dooley #10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Lagonza Hayward #2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 53 | 23 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Kick returns
| FLA | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
London Montgomery #24 | 3 | 39 | 13.0 | 21 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 39 | 13.0 | 21 | 0 |
Punt returns
| FLA | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bailey Stockton #3 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 3 | 0 |
Kicking
| FLA | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Patrick Durkin #91 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 37 | 0/0 | 3 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 37 | 0/0 | 3 |
Punting
| FLA | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alec Clark #38 | 5 | 218 | 43.6 | 0 | 3 | 52 |
| Team | 5 | 218 | 43.6 | 0 | 3 | 52 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| FLA | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 19 | 14 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 9-17 | 5-10 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Total Yards | 330 | 242 |
| Passing | 119 | 181 |
| Comp/Att | 16/24 | 15/26 |
| Yards per pass | 5.0 | 7.0 |
| Rushing | 211 | 61 |
| Rushing Attempts | 48 | 27 |
| Yards per rush | 4.4 | 2.3 |
| Penalties | 6-45 | 5-23 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 34:07 | 25:53 |
Model projected FLA 24.77 – 27.91 UK at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -2.5%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Aaron Philo · FLA
16/24 C/ATT · 119 YDSKenny Minchey · UK
15/26 C/ATT · 181 YDSJason Patterson · UK
5 CAR · 22 YDSBailey Stockton · FLA
4 REC · 34 YDSDJ Miller · UK
4 REC · 80 YDSBen Hanks III · FLA
7 TOT · 3 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Florida vs Kentucky pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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