NCAAFFinalBoone Pickens Stadium

#10 Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma State Cowboys

Final · ESPN

52–27

Texas TechOklahoma St

Final

#10Texas Tech Red Raiders

9-1 · W3

390 PF · 244 PA

Final

Oklahoma State Cowboys

6-4 · L1

422 PF · 297 PA

TTU 46%OKST 54%

At lock: projected TTU 35.16–36.98 OKST

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 9:00 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1354667866

Missed · off by 27

Most typical sim

TTU 35 – OKST 37

Final

TTU 52 – OKST 27

Winner: Oklahoma St (55%)
Spread: TTU +3.5 covers (54%)
Total: Under 73.5 (55%)
Score error (both teams)27

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: TTU vs OKST

The model

How this number was built

TTU 35.16–36.98 OKST · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
OKST +13.8 vs TTU +15.5 · pred margin +2.5
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +5.9 vs +12.6 · model OKST 28.9–36.2 TTU
Home field
+3.0 pts to OKST
Record
OKST 6-4 · TTU 9-1
Market prior
Blended 66% toward OKST -4.5 / total 74.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
TTU	21	7	7	17	52
OKST	0	20	0	7	27

How the points were scored

TDQ1 14:467–0
Malcolm Simmons 97 Yd Kickoff Return (Stone Harrington Kick)
TDQ1 12:0314–0
J'Koby Williams 34 Yd Run (Stone Harrington Kick)
TDQ1 0:5321–0
Terrance Carter Jr. 8 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Stone Harrington Kick)
FGQ2 13:3021–3
Sam Keltner 40 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 7:3321–10
Drew Mestemaker 13 Yd Run (Sam Keltner Kick)
TDQ2 3:5521–17
Morgan McPhaul 18 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Sam Keltner Kick)
TDQ2 3:3828–17
Micah Hudson 80 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Stone Harrington Kick)
FGQ2 0:1028–20
Sam Keltner 24 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 12:5435–20
Malcolm Simmons 45 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Stone Harrington Kick)
TDQ4 14:5442–20
Kenny Johnson 30 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Stone Harrington Kick)
FGQ4 8:5945–20
Stone Harrington 54 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 8:1252–20
Cameron Dickey 2 Yd Run (Stone Harrington Kick)
TDQ4 0:5452–27
William Mason 10 Yd Run (Sam Keltner Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

TTU	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	QBR
Thomas Castellanos #4	12/23	263	11.4	4	60.6
Will Hammond #15	1/1	5	5.0	0	--
Team	13/24	268	11.2	4	--

Rushing

TTU	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
J'Koby Williams #20	19	124	6.5	1	34
Thomas Castellanos #4	11	38	3.5	0	20
Ashton Rowden #28	3	7	2.3	0	4
Cameron Dickey #8	3	5	1.7	1	4
Team	36	174	4.8	2	34

Receiving

TTU	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Micah Hudson #1	2	89	44.5	1	80
Kenny Johnson #2	3	75	25.0	1	36
Malcolm Simmons #11	1	45	45.0	1	45
Jett Carpenter #85	1	26	26.0	0	26
Terrance Carter Jr. #7	3	24	8.0	1	15
Matt Ludwig #5	1	5	5.0	0	5
J'Koby Williams #20	2	4	2.0	0	2
Team	13	268	20.6	4	80

Fumbles

TTU	FUM	LOST	REC
Thomas Castellanos #4	1	1	0
Team	1	1	0

Defense

TTU	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR	TD
Ben Roberts #13	13	9	0.5	1.5	0	0	0
Austin Romaine #15	8	1	0	0.5	0	1	0
A.J. Holmes Jr. #10	5	3	0.5	1.5	0	1	0
Brenden Jordan #7	5	3	0	0	1	0	0
Peyton Morgan #3	5	2	0	0.5	1	1	0
Adam Trick #20	4	2	0	0	0	1	0
Oliver Miles III #5	3	3	0	0	1	0	0
Trey White #2	3	2	1	1	0	0	0
Brice Pollock #14	3	2	0	0	2	0	0
Davin Martin #4	3	2	0	0	1	0	0
Julien Laventure #1	3	2	0	0	0	0	0
LaDamion Guyton #32	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
John Curry #6	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
Marcus Ramon-Edwards #22	2	2	0	0	0	0	0
Keyshawn Williams #96	2	2	0	0	0	1	0
Mateen Ibirogba #98	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
Amier Boyd #27	2	1	0	0	1	0	0
Corey Platt Jr. #9	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Wesley Smith #40	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Malik Esquerra #24	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jojo Johnson	1	1	0	1	0	0	0
Maddox Quiller #23	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Cord Nolan #31	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jayden Cofield #51	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Bryce Butler #92	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Jamond Mathis #8	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Malcolm Simmons #11	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	77	45	3	7	7	8	1

Interceptions

TTU	INT	YDS
Ben Roberts #13	1	17
John Curry #6	1	13
Team	2	30

Kick returns

TTU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Malcolm Simmons #11	2	110	55.0	97	1
Oliver Miles III #5	1	15	15.0	15	0
Team	3	125	41.7	97	1

Punt returns

TTU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Kenny Johnson #2	3	6	2.0	5	0
Team	3	6	2.0	5	0

Kicking

TTU	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Stone Harrington #48	1/1	100.0	54	7/7	10
Team	1/1	100.0	54	7/7	10

Punting

TTU	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Will Karoll #49	7	263	37.6	0	4	46
Team	7	263	37.6	0	4	46

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TTU	OKST
1st Downs	17	23
3rd down efficiency	5-13	5-19
4th down efficiency	0-0	1-4
Total Yards	442	465
Passing	268	297
Comp/Att	13/24	29/49
Yards per pass	11.2	6.1
Rushing	174	168
Rushing Attempts	36	38
Yards per rush	4.8	4.4
Penalties	7-55	2-25
Turnovers	1	2
Fumbles lost	1	0
Interceptions thrown	0	2
Possession	26:51	33:09

Lean · SpreadNot a strong playHit

TTU +3.5

-115 at lock53%

Model projected TTU 35.16 – 36.98 OKST at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -0.9%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

Thomas Castellanos · TTU
12/23 C/ATT · 263 YDS
Drew Mestemaker · OKST
27/42 C/ATT · 277 YDS
J'Koby Williams · TTU
19 CAR · 124 YDS
Caleb Hawkins · OKST
18 CAR · 91 YDS
Micah Hudson · TTU
2 REC · 89 YDS
Terrence Lewis · OKST
4 REC · 78 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Texas Tech vs Oklahoma St pick result · Nov 14, 2026

Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day