Kansas State Wildcats at TCU Horned Frogs
Final · ESPNU
10–20
At lock: projected KSU 18.72–28.23 TCU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 1:11 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1371445485
- Winner: TCU (71%)
- Spread: KSU +10.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 44.5 (61%)
- Score error (both teams)17
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: KSU vs TCU
The model
How this number was built
KSU 18.72–28.23 TCU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexTCU +7.6 vs KSU +1.4 · pred margin +12.3
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +5.8 vs +2.4 · model TCU 29.2–20.6 KSU
- Home field+3.0 pts to TCU
- RecordTCU 5-5 · KSU 4-6
- Market priorBlended 66% toward TCU -14 / total 44.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KSU | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| TCU | 7 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 20 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 8:180–7
Kari Ashley 19 Yd Run (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)
- FGQ2 14:090–10
Kyle Lemmermann 29 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 10:140–17
Jacobe Hayes 5 Yd pass from Jaden Craig (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)
- FGQ3 6:433–17
Luis Rodriguez 55 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 0:4810–17
Jaron Tibbs 53 Yd pass from Dillon Duff (Luis Rodriguez Kick)
- FGQ4 10:1510–20
Kyle Lemmermann 36 Yd Field Goal
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| KSU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dillon Duff #10 | 22/33 | 244 | 7.4 | 1 | 0 | 71.6 |
| Team | 22/33 | 244 | 7.4 | 1 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| KSU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Joe Jackson #4 | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 | 24 |
 Rodney Fields Jr. #20 | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 | 16 |
Team | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
Dillon Duff #10 | 10 | -7 | -0.7 | 0 | 22 |
| Team | 25 | 58 | 2.3 | 0 | 24 |
Receiving
| KSU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jaron Tibbs #12 | 8 | 115 | 14.4 | 1 | 53 |
 Garrett Oakley #86 | 6 | 60 | 10.0 | 0 | 18 |
 Derrick Salley Jr. #15 | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 0 | 23 |
 Linkon Cure #0 | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 0 | 17 |
Rodney Fields Jr. #20 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
Joe Jackson #4 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
 Josh Manning #5 | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Team | 22 | 244 | 11.1 | 1 | 53 |
Fumbles
| KSU | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Rodney Fields Jr. #20 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Dillon Duff #10 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Defense
| KSU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Asa Newsom #23 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Wesley Fair #18 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Gabe Powers #35 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ben Osueke #47 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Rex Van Wyhe #28 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Logan Bartley #10 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 JoJo Scott #21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Darien Whitaker Jr. #6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kamari Burns #15 | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nick McClellan #34 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Travis Bates #39 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jordan Allen #91 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Weston Polk #44 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Wendell Gregory #1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jet Dineen #14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jayden Bryant #40 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 66 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| KSU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Monterrio Elston Jr. #31 | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 11 | 0 |
Punt returns
| KSU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sterling Lockett #6 | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 7 | 0 |
Kicking
| KSU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Luis Rodriguez #43 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 55 | 1/1 | 4 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 55 | 1/1 | 4 |
Punting
| KSU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Simon McClannan #8 | 6 | 265 | 44.2 | 1 | 2 | 50 |
| Team | 6 | 265 | 44.2 | 1 | 2 | 50 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| KSU | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 17 | 18 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 5-13 | 10-18 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Total Yards | 302 | 324 |
| Passing | 244 | 225 |
| Comp/Att | 22/33 | 20/34 |
| Yards per pass | 7.4 | 6.6 |
| Rushing | 58 | 99 |
| Rushing Attempts | 25 | 35 |
| Yards per rush | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| Penalties | 4-41 | 1-10 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 2 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 28:05 | 31:55 |
Model projected KSU 18.72 – 28.23 TCU at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.2%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Dillon Duff · KSU
22/33 C/ATT · 244 YDSJaden Craig · TCU
20/34 C/ATT · 225 YDSJoe Jackson · KSU
5 CAR · 33 YDSJeremy Payne · TCU
15 CAR · 55 YDSJaron Tibbs · KSU
8 REC · 115 YDSJordan Dwyer · TCU
5 REC · 85 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Kansas St vs TCU pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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