Kansas Jayhawks at West Virginia Mountaineers
Final · ESPN2
37–14
At lock: projected KU 32.28–34.59 WVU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 4:31 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1321112628
- Winner: West Virginia (55%)
- Spread: KU +3 covers (48% vs 47%, push 6%)
- Total: Under 67.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)26
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: KU vs WVU
The model
How this number was built
KU 32.28–34.59 WVU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexWVU +2.7 vs KU +4.2 · pred margin +1.3
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +1.5 vs +3.8 · model WVU 31.6–31.8 KU
- Home field+3.0 pts to WVU
- RecordWVU 5-5 · KU 4-6
- Market priorBlended 66% toward WVU -1.5 / total 68.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KU | 17 | 13 | 0 | 7 | 37 |
| WVU | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ1 10:053–0
Martin Connington 24 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ1 8:5210–0
Khijohnn Cummings-Coleman 5 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)
- TDQ1 4:3510–7
Michael Hawkins Jr. 2 Yd Run (Jack Cassidy Kick)
- TDQ1 1:0117–7
Khijohnn Cummings-Coleman 26 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)
- TDQ2 6:1723–7
Chase Belcher 2 Yd Run (Martin Connington PAT failed)
- TDQ2 0:4530–7
Isaiah Marshall 2 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)
- TDQ4 14:5737–7
Chase Belcher 8 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)
- TDQ4 5:0137–14
John Neider 17 Yd pass from Michael Hawkins Jr. (Jack Cassidy Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| KU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Isaiah Marshall #8 | 15/18 | 152 | 8.4 | 0 | 1 | 82.6 |
| Team | 15/18 | 152 | 8.4 | 0 | 1 | -- |
Rushing
| KU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Isaiah Marshall #8 | 19 | 164 | 8.6 | 1 | 50 |
 Chase Belcher #26 | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 2 | 11 |
 Khijohnn Cummings-Coleman #22 | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 2 | 26 |
 Dylan Edwards #1 | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 | 7 |
 Keaton Kubecka #3 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
Team | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 55 | 296 | 5.4 | 5 | 50 |
Receiving
| KU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nik McMillan #5 | 6 | 44 | 7.3 | 0 | 17 |
 Cam Pickett #7 | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 | 24 |
Chase Belcher #26 | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 0 | 28 |
 Carson Bruhn #44 | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 | 27 |
Keaton Kubecka #3 | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 | 13 |
 Nahzae Cox #0 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
Dylan Edwards #1 | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 15 | 152 | 10.1 | 0 | 28 |
Fumbles
| KU | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
 Tate Nagy #11 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Defense
| KU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Corey Gordon #3 | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Leroy Harris III #33 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Trey Lathan #4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Blake Herold #94 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Bam Crouch #7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Quincy Davis #13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Elijah Cannon #10 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dakyus Brinkley #9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Taylor Davis #27 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Trey Brown #17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 David Santiago #44 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kevin Oatis #88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaden Harris #12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Eamon Smalls #99 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Austin Alexander #0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Syeed Gibbs #2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Alex Bray #91 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Marcus Calvin #56 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jalen Todd #1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 Christian Pritchett #20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Isreal Moses V #82 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Donald Collier #86 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nakwaine Carter #92 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Jibriel Conde #96 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 73 | 31 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
Interceptions
| KU | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Trey Lathan #4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Punt returns
| KU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tate Nagy #11 | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 1 | 0 |
Kicking
| KU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Martin Connington #29 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 24 | 4/5 | 7 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 24 | 4/5 | 7 |
Punting
| KU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matthew Gill #99 | 4 | 162 | 40.5 | 0 | 4 | 48 |
| Team | 4 | 162 | 40.5 | 0 | 4 | 48 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| KU | WVU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 21 | 15 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 7-15 | 5-17 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-1 | 3-5 |
| Total Yards | 448 | 262 |
| Passing | 152 | 227 |
| Comp/Att | 15/18 | 19/34 |
| Yards per pass | 8.4 | 6.7 |
| Rushing | 296 | 35 |
| Rushing Attempts | 55 | 37 |
| Yards per rush | 5.4 | 0.9 |
| Penalties | 3-22 | 4-20 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 1 |
| Possession | 36:44 | 23:16 |
Model projected KU 32.28 – 34.59 WVU at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -2.1%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Isaiah Marshall · KU
15/18 C/ATT · 152 YDSMichael Hawkins Jr. · WVU
19/34 C/ATT · 227 YDSNik McMillan · KU
6 REC · 44 YDSDJ Epps · WVU
5 REC · 51 YDSCorey Gordon · KU
11 TOT · 10 SOLOCam Torbor · WVU
11 TOT · 2 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Kansas vs West Virginia pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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