#14 Houston Cougars at Colorado Buffaloes
Final · ESPN
32–42
At lock: projected HOU 31.08–19.67 COLO
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 12, 9:31 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1337890247
- Winner: Houston (76%)
- Spread: HOU -9.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 51.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)23
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: HOU vs COLO
The model
How this number was built
HOU 31.08–19.67 COLO · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexCOLO +0.2 vs HOU +11.9 · pred margin -8.1
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.1 vs +7.0 · model COLO 21.4–32.4 HOU
- Home field+3.0 pts to COLO
- RecordCOLO 4-6 · HOU 7-3
- Market priorBlended 66% toward HOU -7.5 / total 53.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 3 | 17 | 0 | 12 | 32 |
| COLO | 0 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 42 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ1 7:503–0
Jonathan Dimas 27 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 14:5510–0
Makhi Hughes 8 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)
- TDQ2 9:2510–7
Richard Young 38 Yd Run (Daniel Gerlach Kick)
- TDQ2 6:5217–7
Amare Thomas 4 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Jonathan Dimas Kick)
- FGQ2 2:3620–7
Jonathan Dimas 52 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 1:4920–14
DeKalon Taylor 67 Yd Run (Daniel Gerlach Kick)
- TDQ2 0:1520–21
JaQuail Smith 32 Yd Run (Daniel Gerlach Kick)
- TDQ3 13:2120–28
Joseph Williams 53 Yd pass from Isaac Wilson (Daniel Gerlach Kick)
- TDQ3 5:2620–35
Kaneal Sweetwyne 14 Yd Run (Daniel Gerlach Kick)
- TDQ4 10:0026–35
Patrick Overmyer 22 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
- TDQ4 3:5926–42
Richard Young 2 Yd Run (Daniel Gerlach Kick)
- TDQ4 1:5132–42
Trent Walker 4 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| HOU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Conner Weigman #1 | 26/42 | 272 | 6.5 | 3 | 1 | 63.2 |
| Team | 26/42 | 272 | 6.5 | 3 | 1 | -- |
Rushing
| HOU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Makhi Hughes #21 | 15 | 106 | 7.1 | 1 | 29 |
 Re'Shaun Sanford II #6 | 13 | 70 | 5.4 | 0 | 40 |
Conner Weigman #1 | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 | 15 |
| Team | 34 | 205 | 6.0 | 1 | 40 |
Receiving
| HOU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Patrick Overmyer #9 | 9 | 116 | 12.9 | 1 | 24 |
 Amare Thomas #0 | 6 | 66 | 11.0 | 1 | 23 |
 Trent Walker #4 | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 1 | 16 |
Makhi Hughes #21 | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 | 19 |
 Koby Young #2 | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 | 12 |
 Luke McGary #87 | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Team | 26 | 272 | 10.5 | 3 | 24 |
Fumbles
| HOU | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Conner Weigman #1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Defense
| HOU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kentrell Webb #8 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Myles Rowser #21 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaden Yates #1 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Javion White #0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Myles Parker #98 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Sione Fotu #12 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jordan Allen #6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Will James #5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jalen Mayo #2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Christian Brathwaite #17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Khalil Laufau #18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ashton Porter #9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 C.J. Douglas #13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 JD Rhym #3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Johnsley Barbas #33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 De'Marion Thomas #90 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Latreveon McCutchin #10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Keany Parks #24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 58 | 40 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Interceptions
| HOU | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Javion White #0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| HOU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DJ Butler #25 | 2 | 38 | 19.0 | 22 | 0 |
Re'Shaun Sanford II #6 | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 28 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 66 | 22.0 | 28 | 0 |
Kicking
| HOU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jonathan Dimas #49 | 2/2 | 100.0 | 52 | 2/2 | 8 |
| Team | 2/2 | 100.0 | 52 | 2/2 | 8 |
Punting
| HOU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liam Dougherty #91 | 2 | 101 | 50.5 | 0 | 1 | 59 |
| Team | 2 | 101 | 50.5 | 0 | 1 | 59 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| HOU | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 28 | 20 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 9-16 | 10-14 |
| 4th down efficiency | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Total Yards | 477 | 466 |
| Passing | 272 | 217 |
| Comp/Att | 26/42 | 17/25 |
| Yards per pass | 6.5 | 8.7 |
| Rushing | 205 | 249 |
| Rushing Attempts | 34 | 39 |
| Yards per rush | 6.0 | 6.4 |
| Penalties | 6-45 | 6-61 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 1 |
| Possession | 29:58 | 30:02 |
Model projected HOU 31.08 – 19.67 COLO at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -0.3%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Conner Weigman · HOU
26/42 C/ATT · 272 YDSIsaac Wilson · COLO
17/25 C/ATT · 217 YDSMakhi Hughes · HOU
15 CAR · 106 YDSRichard Young · COLO
21 CAR · 99 YDSPatrick Overmyer · HOU
9 REC · 116 YDSJoseph Williams · COLO
5 REC · 80 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Houston vs Colorado pick result · Nov 13, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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