Cincinnati Bearcats at Iowa State Cyclones
Final · TNT
13–41
At lock: projected CIN 28.66–30.94 ISU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 12:40 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3333882455
- Winner: Iowa State (55%)
- Spread: CIN +3 covers (48% vs 46%, push 6%)
- Total: Over 59.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)26
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: CIN vs ISU
The model
How this number was built
CIN 28.66–30.94 ISU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexISU +2.5 vs CIN +4.4 · pred margin +2.0
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +2.9 vs +4.5 · model ISU 30.2–29.3 CIN
- Home field+3.0 pts to ISU
- RecordISU 5-5 · CIN 5-5
- Market priorBlended 66% toward ISU -2.5 / total 57.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| ISU | 21 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 41 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 13:317–0
Lyviel Waters 4 Yd pass from JC French IV (Stephen Rusnak Kick)
- TDQ1 9:227–7
Aiden Flora 11 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)
- TDQ1 7:477–14
Aiden Flora 77 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)
- TDQ1 2:347–21
Aiden Flora 5 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)
- TDQ2 14:497–28
Cameron Pettaway 70 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Kyle Konrardy Kick)
- FGQ2 7:047–31
Kyle Konrardy 22 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 2:1313–31
JC French IV 12 Yd pass from Malachi Henry (Stephen Rusnak PAT failed)
- FGQ4 5:0313–34
Kyle Konrardy 24 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 1:4013–41
Arnold Barnes III 32 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| CIN | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 JC French IV #4 | 14/23 | 97 | 4.2 | 1 | 0 | 6.4 |
 Liam O'Brien #10 | 2/2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 | 0 | -- |
 Malachi Henry #9 | 1/1 | 12 | 12.0 | 1 | 0 | -- |
| Team | 17/26 | 128 | 4.9 | 2 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| CIN | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cole Tabb #3 | 16 | 165 | 10.3 | 0 | 66 |
 Gi'Bran Payne #6 | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 0 | 17 |
JC French IV #4 | 15 | 41 | 2.7 | 0 | 21 |
 Zion Johnson #13 | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 | 14 |
| Team | 42 | 273 | 6.5 | 0 | 66 |
Receiving
| CIN | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cole Tabb #3 | 8 | 70 | 8.8 | 0 | 14 |
 Lyviel Waters #85 | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 1 | 11 |
 Larenzo Fenner #2 | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | 9 |
JC French IV #4 | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 1 | 12 |
 Gavin Grover #87 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 8 |
 Joshua Smith #20 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 8 |
Malachi Henry #9 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
 Cade Wolford #8 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 17 | 128 | 7.5 | 2 | 14 |
Fumbles
| CIN | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
JC French IV #4 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Defense
| CIN | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jasper Beeler #18 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Damaine Wilson #9 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jonathan Thompson #22 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Antwan Peek Jr. #3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 MJ Cannon #2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Josh Hough #95 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jacob Finley #0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Marqavious Saboor #5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Drew Logan #91 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Marquaze Parker #4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brian Simms III #17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Simeon Coleman #31 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Patrick Bauer #10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kenny Worthy #8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zay Johnson #6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 George Leibold #33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Daniel James #25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaylon White-McClain #16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Chidera Otutu #11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jamari Johnson #15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Evan Weinberg #36 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 81 | 31 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Interceptions
| CIN | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Kenny Worthy #8 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| CIN | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zylan Perry #7 | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 18 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 18 | 0 |
Kicking
| CIN | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stephen Rusnak #99 | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1/2 | 1 |
| Team | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1/2 | 1 |
Punting
| CIN | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Max Fletcher #31 | 3 | 140 | 46.7 | 0 | 2 | 52 |
| Team | 3 | 140 | 46.7 | 0 | 2 | 52 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CIN | ISU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 19 | 26 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 2-10 | 4-13 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-5 | 3-3 |
| Total Yards | 401 | 551 |
| Passing | 128 | 266 |
| Comp/Att | 17/26 | 15/24 |
| Yards per pass | 4.9 | 11.1 |
| Rushing | 273 | 285 |
| Rushing Attempts | 42 | 45 |
| Yards per rush | 6.5 | 6.3 |
| Penalties | 6-70 | 2-10 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 2 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
| Possession | 27:38 | 32:22 |
Model projected CIN 28.66 – 30.94 ISU at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.3%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
JC French IV · CIN
14/23 C/ATT · 97 YDSJaylen Raynor · ISU
14/23 C/ATT · 229 YDSCole Tabb · CIN
16 CAR · 165 YDSAiden Flora · ISU
28 CAR · 216 YDSCameron Pettaway · ISU
2 REC · 76 YDSJasper Beeler · CIN
11 TOT · 9 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Cincinnati vs Iowa State pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day