Baylor Bears at #12 BYU Cougars
Final · Fox
7–28
At lock: projected BAY 21.10–28.22 BYU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 3:20 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3317104836
- Winner: BYU (68%)
- Spread: BAY +7.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Under 49.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)14
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: BAY vs BYU
The model
How this number was built
BAY 21.10–28.22 BYU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexBYU +14.7 vs BAY +11.5 · pred margin +7.7
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +9.5 vs +7.6 · model BYU 29.1–22.8 BAY
- Home field+3.0 pts to BYU
- RecordBYU 8-2 · BAY 6-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward BYU -8.5 / total 49.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| BYU | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 28 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 9:140–7
Bear Bachmeier 8 Yd Run (Matthias Dunn Kick)
- TDQ1 0:100–14
Bear Bachmeier 5 Yd Run (Matthias Dunn Kick)
- TDQ2 1:400–21
Bear Bachmeier 1 Yd Run (Matthias Dunn Kick)
- TDQ4 11:187–21
Matthew Klopfenstein 3 Yd pass from DJ Lagway (Rhett Armstrong Kick)
- TDQ4 6:437–28
Jojo Phillips 23 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Matthias Dunn Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| BAY | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DJ Lagway #2 | 21/37 | 159 | 4.3 | 1 | 1 | 44.4 |
| Team | 21/37 | 159 | 4.3 | 1 | 1 | -- |
Rushing
| BAY | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DJ Lagway #2 | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 | 18 |
 Caden Knighten #11 | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 | 5 |
 Ryelan Morris #25 | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 | 6 |
 Dawson Pendergrass #35 | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | 5 |
| Team | 23 | 79 | 3.4 | 0 | 18 |
Receiving
| BAY | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jadon Porter #3 | 5 | 50 | 10.0 | 0 | 31 |
 Gavin Freeman #6 | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 | 9 |
 DeBraun Hampton #83 | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 0 | 14 |
 Hawkins Polley #86 | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 | 17 |
 Dre'lon Miller #1 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 8 |
Dawson Pendergrass #35 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
 Taz Williams Jr. #18 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
 Matthew Klopfenstein #85 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 | 3 |
Caden Knighten #11 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
 Michael Turner #23 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 21 | 159 | 7.6 | 1 | 31 |
Fumbles
| BAY | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Michael Turner #23 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Defense
| BAY | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Travion Barnes #5 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kyland Reed #10 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Micah Gifford #24 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Devin Turner #11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kaleb Burns #41 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Bo Onu #21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 Devon Jordan #7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Traevon Mitchell #91 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tyler Turner #17 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kyler Jordan #40 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ryan Davis #9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 Garrick Ponder #13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Daniel Cobbs #14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Colby McCalister #15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jamaal Whyce Jr. #99 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 LeVar Thornton Jr. #25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Zavion Hardy #93 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kedrick Walker #36 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kaleb Arterberry #56 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kamren Washington #96 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Hosea Wheeler #0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jordan Mack #97 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 75 | 39 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Kick returns
| BAY | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jayden McGowan #15 | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 18 | 0 |
 Michael Allen #30 | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 16 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 34 | 17.0 | 18 | 0 |
Kicking
| BAY | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rhett Armstrong #98 | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 |
| Team | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 |
Punting
| BAY | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Palmer Williams #94 | 6 | 289 | 48.2 | 0 | 2 | 64 |
| Team | 6 | 289 | 48.2 | 0 | 2 | 64 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| BAY | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 16 | 23 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 9-16 | 7-15 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Total Yards | 238 | 312 |
| Passing | 159 | 123 |
| Comp/Att | 21/37 | 15/25 |
| Yards per pass | 4.3 | 4.9 |
| Rushing | 79 | 189 |
| Rushing Attempts | 23 | 47 |
| Yards per rush | 3.4 | 4.0 |
| Penalties | 9-80 | 7-60 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
| Possession | 22:59 | 37:01 |
Model projected BAY 21.10 – 28.22 BYU at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -2.8%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
DJ Lagway · BAY
21/37 C/ATT · 159 YDSBear Bachmeier · BYU
14/24 C/ATT · 104 YDSJadon Porter · BAY
5 REC · 50 YDSWalker Lyons · BYU
3 REC · 49 YDSTravion Barnes · BAY
10 TOT · 7 SOLOViliami Po'uha · BYU
5 TOT · 3 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Baylor vs BYU pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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