Arizona State Sun Devils at UCF Knights
Final · ESPNU
26–13
At lock: projected ASU 22.81–26.63 UCF
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 3:20 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3166106265
- Winner: UCF (60%)
- Spread: UCF -3 covers (51% vs 43%, push 6%)
- Total: Over 48.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)17
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ASU vs UCF
The model
How this number was built
ASU 22.81–26.63 UCF · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexUCF +3.4 vs ASU +1.7 · pred margin +3.7
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +2.6 vs +2.7 · model UCF 28.0–24.9 ASU
- Home field+3.0 pts to UCF
- RecordUCF 5-5 · ASU 6-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward UCF -3.5 / total 46.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASU | 0 | 16 | 0 | 10 | 26 |
| UCF | 0 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ2 14:557–0
Marquis Gillis 1 Yd Run (Carson Smith Kick)
- FGQ2 4:1810–0
Carson Smith 51 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 1:5310–7
Landen Chambers 2 Yd Run (Will Stone Kick)
- FGQ2 0:4313–7
Carson Smith 41 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ2 0:1616–7
Carson Smith 28 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 13:3923–7
Cardae Mack 8 Yd Run (Carson Smith Kick)
- FGQ4 6:0226–7
Carson Smith 37 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 2:1226–13
Tyren Hornes 40 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| ASU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jake Fette #2 | 21/36 | 196 | 5.4 | 0 | 0 | 60.9 |
 Derek Eusebio #5 | 1/1 | 28 | 28.0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| Team | 22/37 | 224 | 6.1 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| ASU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cardae Mack #25 | 25 | 111 | 4.4 | 1 | 13 |
Jake Fette #2 | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 | 9 |
 Kyson Brown #1 | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 | 16 |
 Demarius Robinson #23 | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | 4 |
Derek Eusebio #5 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
 Marquis Gillis #6 | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
 Cory Butler Jr. #9 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
Team | 2 | -9 | -4.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 42 | 165 | 3.9 | 2 | 16 |
Receiving
| ASU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Reed Harris #3 | 7 | 80 | 11.4 | 0 | 34 |
 Anthony Miller #85 | 2 | 45 | 22.5 | 0 | 28 |
 Omarion Miller #4 | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 0 | 15 |
Derek Eusebio #5 | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 | 7 |
Kyson Brown #1 | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 | 13 |
Cardae Mack #25 | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 | 11 |
 Raiden Vines-Bright #7 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Team | 22 | 224 | 10.2 | 0 | 34 |
Fumbles
| ASU | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
 Albert Smith III #3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Defense
| ASU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Owen Long #22 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Martell Hughes #8 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Montana Warren #7 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Adrian Wilson #6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kyan McDonald #21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jessiah McGrew #23 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jalen Thompson #9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 C.J. Fite #99 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zeth Thues #31 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ashton Stamps #1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Prayer Young-Blackgoat #13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Antoine Belgrave-Shorter #35 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ramar Williams #55 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Carson Smith #32 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Clayton Smith #10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Blazen Lono-Wong #97 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Jeffrey Manns #95 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 54 | 34 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Punt returns
| ASU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jalen Moss #18 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
Kicking
| ASU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carson Smith #32 | 4/4 | 100.0 | 51 | 2/2 | 14 |
| Team | 4/4 | 100.0 | 51 | 2/2 | 14 |
Punting
| ASU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nick McLarty #35 | 4 | 129 | 32.3 | 0 | 2 | 36 |
| Team | 4 | 129 | 32.3 | 0 | 2 | 36 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ASU | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 23 | 15 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 10-19 | 2-9 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Total Yards | 389 | 311 |
| Passing | 224 | 257 |
| Comp/Att | 22/37 | 21/31 |
| Yards per pass | 6.1 | 8.3 |
| Rushing | 165 | 54 |
| Rushing Attempts | 42 | 23 |
| Yards per rush | 3.9 | 2.3 |
| Penalties | 4-30 | 3-20 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 37:45 | 22:15 |
Model projected ASU 22.81 – 26.63 UCF at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.0%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Jake Fette · ASU
21/36 C/ATT · 196 YDSAlonza Barnett III · UCF
21/30 C/ATT · 257 YDSCardae Mack · ASU
25 CAR · 111 YDSLanden Chambers · UCF
7 CAR · 54 YDSReed Harris · ASU
7 REC · 80 YDSJosh Derry · UCF
7 REC · 137 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Arizona St vs UCF pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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