West Virginia Mountaineers at #10 Texas Tech Red Raiders
Final · ESPN
48–53
At lock: projected WVU 21.96–40.73 TTU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3149328646
- Winner: Texas Tech (88%)
- Spread: TTU -16.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Under 65.5 (61%)
- Score error (both teams)38
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: WVU vs TTU
The model
How this number was built
WVU 21.96–40.73 TTU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexTTU +15.5 vs WVU +2.7 · pred margin +16.8
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +12.6 vs +1.5 · model TTU 43.5–22.9 WVU
- Home field+3.0 pts to TTU
- RecordTTU 8-1 · WVU 5-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward TTU -16.5 / total 68.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WVU | 17 | 10 | 21 | 0 | 48 |
| TTU | 14 | 27 | 0 | 12 | 53 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 13:020–7
Terrance Carter Jr. 30 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Stone Harrington Kick)
- TDQ1 9:267–7
Amari Latimer 3 Yd Run (Jack Cassidy Kick)
- FGQ1 4:3910–7
Jack Cassidy 30 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ1 4:2610–14
J'Koby Williams 75 Yd Run (Stone Harrington Kick)
- TDQ1 0:5817–14
Michael Hawkins Jr. 3 Yd Run (Jack Cassidy Kick)
- TDQ2 13:3717–21
Terrance Carter Jr. 29 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Stone Harrington Kick)
- TDQ2 13:0624–21
TaRon Francis 73 Yd pass from Michael Hawkins Jr. (Jack Cassidy Kick)
- TDQ2 9:2824–28
Jett Carpenter 1 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Stone Harrington Kick)
- TDQ2 7:3124–35
Kenny Johnson 38 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Stone Harrington Kick)
- FGQ2 2:1927–35
Jack Cassidy 29 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 1:1327–41
Quinten Joyner 1 Yd Run (Matt Ludwig Run for Two-Point Conversion)
- TDQ3 11:1534–41
Michael Hawkins Jr. 2 Yd Run (Jack Cassidy Kick)
- TDQ3 3:5041–41
Cam Cook 2 Yd Run (Jack Cassidy Kick)
- TDQ3 1:1248–41
Michael Hawkins Jr. 3 Yd Run (Jack Cassidy Kick)
- FGQ4 7:5548–44
Stone Harrington 46 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 2:4448–51
Kenny Johnson 5 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Stone Harrington Kick)
- SFQ4 1:2448–53
Trey White Safety
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| WVU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Michael Hawkins Jr. #3 | 11/16 | 303 | 18.9 | 1 | 0 | 91.8 |
| Team | 11/16 | 303 | 18.9 | 1 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| WVU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cam Cook #4 | 23 | 149 | 6.5 | 1 | 38 |
Michael Hawkins Jr. #3 | 19 | 88 | 4.6 | 3 | 44 |
 Amari Latimer #1 | 15 | 36 | 2.4 | 1 | 7 |
 DJ Epps #2 | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 | 15 |
Team | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 59 | 279 | 4.7 | 5 | 44 |
Receiving
| WVU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TaRon Francis #11 | 3 | 169 | 56.3 | 1 | 75 |
 Prince Strachan #17 | 3 | 70 | 23.3 | 0 | 32 |
 Ryan Ward #84 | 1 | 43 | 43.0 | 0 | 43 |
Cam Cook #4 | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | 5 |
DJ Epps #2 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 8 |
 Cyrus Traugh #86 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Team | 11 | 303 | 27.5 | 1 | 75 |
Fumbles
| WVU | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cam Cook #4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Defense
| WVU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kameron Reddic #29 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jason Hall Jr. #40 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Andrew Powdrell #0 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Isaiah Patterson #16 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ben Cutter #15 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cam Torbor #13 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 KJ Henson #43 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 David Afogho #99 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Geimere Latimer II #1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nate Gabriel #93 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Chams Diagne #7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Harper Holloman #50 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nick Taylor #19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Matt Sieg #3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Kamari Wilson #8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tyler Stolsky #14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Keyshawn Robinson #20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Miles Khatri #17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 73 | 45 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Punt returns
| WVU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Matt Sieg #3 | 1 | 74 | 74.0 | 74 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 74 | 74.0 | 74 | 0 |
Kicking
| WVU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jack Cassidy #42 | 2/2 | 100.0 | 30 | 6/6 | 12 |
| Team | 2/2 | 100.0 | 30 | 6/6 | 12 |
Punting
| WVU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bryan Hansen #83 | 4 | 191 | 47.8 | 0 | 2 | 64 |
| Team | 4 | 191 | 47.8 | 0 | 2 | 64 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| WVU | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 18 | 26 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 7-15 | 8-16 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Total Yards | 582 | 638 |
| Passing | 303 | 362 |
| Comp/Att | 11/16 | 18/28 |
| Yards per pass | 18.9 | 12.9 |
| Rushing | 279 | 276 |
| Rushing Attempts | 59 | 53 |
| Yards per rush | 4.7 | 5.2 |
| Penalties | 9-75 | 8-49 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 29:45 | 30:15 |
At lock WVU 21.96–40.73 TTU · TTU by 18.8 pts vs TTU -17.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissMichael Hawkins Jr. · WVU
11/16 C/ATT · 303 YDSThomas Castellanos · TTU
18/27 C/ATT · 362 YDSCam Cook · WVU
23 CAR · 149 YDSJ'Koby Williams · TTU
19 CAR · 160 YDSTaRon Francis · WVU
3 REC · 169 YDSKenny Johnson · TTU
5 REC · 84 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
West Virginia vs Texas Tech pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is TTU -17.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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