TCU Horned Frogs at #22 Arizona Wildcats
Final · ESPN
28–29
At lock: projected TCU 17.05–27.54 ARIZ
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 9:55 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3132551027
- Winner: Arizona (75%)
- Spread: ARIZ -7.5 covers (57%)
- Total: Under 45.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)12
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: TCU vs ARIZ
The model
How this number was built
TCU 17.05–27.54 ARIZ · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexARIZ +12.6 vs TCU +7.6 · pred margin +6.9
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +10.5 vs +5.8 · model ARIZ 29.2–18.6 TCU
- Home field+3.0 pts to ARIZ
- RecordARIZ 7-2 · TCU 4-5
- Market priorBlended 66% toward ARIZ -6 / total 46.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | 0 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
| ARIZ | 10 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 29 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 10:390–7
Isaiah Mizell 20 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)
- FGQ1 4:060–10
Michael Salgado-Medina 43 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 8:537–10
Jaden Craig 7 Yd Run (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)
- TDQ2 4:0914–10
Hudson Hooper 93 Yd Interception Return (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)
- TDQ3 8:1414–17
Noah Fifita 9 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)
- TDQ3 2:3921–17
Jordan Dwyer 6 Yd pass from Jaden Craig (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)
- FGQ4 14:5721–20
Michael Salgado-Medina 23 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 6:3528–20
Jaden Craig 2 Yd Run (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)
- TDQ4 1:4528–26
Quincy Craig 15 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
- FGQ4 0:3828–29
Michael Salgado-Medina 37 Yd Field Goal
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| TCU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jaden Craig #1 | 28/41 | 232 | 5.7 | 1 | 1 | 72.2 |
| Team | 28/41 | 232 | 5.7 | 1 | 1 | -- |
Rushing
| TCU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Amante Martin #23 | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 | 11 |
Jaden Craig #1 | 9 | 12 | 1.3 | 2 | 8 |
 Kari Ashley #81 | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
 Ace Theus #4 | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 21 | 49 | 2.3 | 2 | 11 |
Receiving
| TCU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kari Ashley #81 | 14 | 95 | 6.8 | 0 | 17 |
 Jordan Dwyer #7 | 9 | 86 | 9.6 | 1 | 19 |
 Ed Small #18 | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 | 20 |
Amante Martin #23 | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 | 18 |
 Ka'Morreun Pimpton #88 | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | 11 |
 Jeremy Scott #6 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Team | 28 | 232 | 8.3 | 1 | 20 |
Fumbles
| TCU | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Ed Small #18 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Defense
| TCU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hudson Hooper #37 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 Jordan Lester #22 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kylin Jackson #6 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jamel Johnson #2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Paul Oyewale #97 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Max Carroll #3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kaden McFadden #18 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Gil Jackson Jr. #4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Vernon Glover Jr. #1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zach Chapman #0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Teon Parks #21 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 CJ Woodfork #9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tristan Johnson #35 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 John Schobel #14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Ansel Din-Mbuh #92 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Kilian Registe #73 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Markis Deal #95 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Koron Hayward #16 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Julius Simms #7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Devyn Hidrogo #15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 63 | 39 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Interceptions
| TCU | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Hudson Hooper #37 | 1 | 93 | 1 |
| Team | 1 | 93 | 1 |
Kick returns
| TCU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ed Small #18 | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | 0 |
Punt returns
| TCU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ed Small #18 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 8 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 8 | 0 |
Kicking
| TCU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kyle Lemmermann #34 | 0/2 | 0.0 | 0 | 4/4 | 4 |
| Team | 0/2 | 0.0 | 0 | 4/4 | 4 |
Punting
| TCU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 John Hoyet Chance #48 | 4 | 199 | 49.8 | 1 | 2 | 59 |
| Team | 4 | 199 | 49.8 | 1 | 2 | 59 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TCU | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 22 | 21 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 6-12 | 5-14 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Total Yards | 281 | 441 |
| Passing | 232 | 313 |
| Comp/Att | 28/41 | 24/37 |
| Yards per pass | 5.7 | 8.5 |
| Rushing | 49 | 128 |
| Rushing Attempts | 21 | 33 |
| Yards per rush | 2.3 | 3.9 |
| Penalties | 8-55 | 10-111 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 1 |
| Possession | 28:02 | 31:58 |
At lock TCU 17.05–27.54 ARIZ · ARIZ by 10.5 pts vs ARIZ -9.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissJaden Craig · TCU
28/41 C/ATT · 232 YDSNoah Fifita · ARIZ
24/37 C/ATT · 313 YDSAmante Martin · TCU
8 CAR · 35 YDSKedrick Reescano · ARIZ
10 CAR · 52 YDSKari Ashley · TCU
14 REC · 95 YDSGiovanni Richardson · ARIZ
11 REC · 171 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
TCU vs Arizona pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is ARIZ -9.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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