NCAAFFinalBill Snyder Family Stadium

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas State Wildcats

Final · TNT

66–28

Oklahoma StKansas St

Final

Oklahoma State Cowboys

6-3 · L1

422 PF · 297 PA

Final

Kansas State Wildcats

4-5 · L4

292 PF · 261 PA

OKST 54%KSU 46%

At lock: projected OKST 31.50–29.90 KSU

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 1:16 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3115773408

Winner called · off by 36

Most typical sim

OKST 32 – KSU 30

Final

OKST 66 – KSU 28

Winner: Oklahoma St (53%)
Spread: KSU +6.5 covers (62%)
Total: Under 62.5 (53%)
Score error (both teams)36

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: OKST vs KSU

The model

How this number was built

OKST 31.50–29.90 KSU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
KSU +1.4 vs OKST +13.8 · pred margin -7.0
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +2.4 vs +5.9 · model KSU 31.0–33.0 OKST
Home field
+3.0 pts to KSU
Record
KSU 4-5 · OKST 6-3
Market prior
Blended 66% toward OKST -7 / total 64.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
OKST	28	21	14	3	66
KSU	7	7	7	7	28

How the points were scored

TDQ1 12:217–0
Justin Bowick 32 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Sam Keltner Kick)
TDQ1 11:187–7
Derrick Salley Jr. 73 Yd pass from Blake Barnett (Luis Rodriguez Kick)
TDQ1 8:2414–7
Caleb Hawkins 21 Yd Run (Sam Keltner Kick)
TDQ1 5:0021–7
Caleb Hawkins 37 Yd Run (Sam Keltner Kick)
TDQ1 0:5028–7
Morgan McPhaul 3 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Sam Keltner Kick)
TDQ2 10:3728–14
Logan Bartley 18 Yd Interception Return (Luis Rodriguez Kick)
TDQ2 8:2635–14
Drew Mestemaker 1 Yd Run (Sam Keltner Kick)
TDQ2 3:2242–14
Caleb Hawkins 9 Yd Run (Sam Keltner Kick)
TDQ2 0:1149–14
Miles Coleman 19 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Sam Keltner Kick)
TDQ3 9:2749–21
Derrick Salley Jr. 18 Yd pass from Dillon Duff (Luis Rodriguez Kick)
TDQ3 6:2556–21
Caleb Hawkins 5 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Sam Keltner Kick)
TDQ3 3:2963–21
Drew Mestemaker 5 Yd pass from Wyatt Young (Sam Keltner Kick)
TDQ4 10:5563–28
Rodney Fields Jr. 1 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)
FGQ4 4:2066–28
Sam Keltner 23 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

OKST	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Drew Mestemaker #17	22/28	313	11.2	4	1	90.2
Broderick Vehrs #8	1/1	24	24.0	0	0	--
Wyatt Young #10	1/1	5	5.0	1	0	--
Team	24/30	342	11.4	5	1	--

Rushing

OKST	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Caleb Hawkins #24	20	175	8.8	3	37
William Mason #22	4	20	5.0	0	17
Tre Page III #6	7	17	2.4	0	5
Drew Mestemaker #17	3	11	3.7	1	7
Team	34	223	6.6	4	37

Receiving

OKST	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Miles Coleman #1	6	95	15.8	1	22
Caleb Hawkins #24	6	71	11.8	1	39
Justin Bowick #0	3	59	19.7	1	32
Wyatt Young #10	3	50	16.7	0	26
Terrence Lewis #3	2	30	15.0	0	17
Israel Polk #5	1	24	24.0	0	24
Drew Mestemaker #17	1	5	5.0	1	5
Oscar Hammond #23	1	5	5.0	0	5
Morgan McPhaul #45	1	3	3.0	1	3
Team	24	342	14.3	5	39

Fumbles

OKST	FUM	LOST	REC
Wyatt Young #10	1	1	0
Team	1	1	0

Defense

OKST	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Isaiah Chisom #2	11	9	0	1	0	1
Evan Jackson #1	5	5	0	0	0	0
Taurean Davis #20	5	4	0	0	1	1
Mo Horn #4	5	3	0	0	0	0
Ethan Wesloski #32	5	3	0	0	0	1
Cameron Epps #12	4	4	0	0	1	0
LaDainian Fields #9	3	3	0	0	0	1
James Williams #10	3	3	0	0	1	1
DJ Jackson Jr. #19	2	2	1	1	0	0
Markeith Williams #25	2	2	0	0	0	0
DeSean Brown #87	2	2	0	0	0	1
Malik Charles #0	2	2	0	0	0	0
Christian Bodnar #6	2	2	0	0	0	0
Quinton Hammonds #7	2	1	0	0	0	0
Enai White #45	1	1	0	0	0	0
Trudell Berry #13	1	1	0	0	0	0
Vincent Holmes #27	1	1	0	0	0	0
Kobi Foreman #14	1	1	0	1	0	0
Gunnar Wilson #50	1	1	0	0	1	0
Bobby Deal Jr. #36	1	1	0	0	0	0
Saadiq Clements #5	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	59	51	1	3	4	7

Interceptions

OKST	INT	YDS
LaDainian Fields #9	2	37
Quinton Hammonds #7	1	36
Team	3	73

Kick returns

OKST	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Braylin Presley #83	1	12	12.0	12	0
Team	1	12	12.0	12	0

Punt returns

OKST	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Bobby Deal Jr. #36	2	9	4.5	6	0
Team	2	9	4.5	6	0

Kicking

OKST	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Sam Keltner #16	1/1	100.0	23	9/9	12
Team	1/1	100.0	23	9/9	12

Punting

OKST	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Lachie Pozzobon #37	2	73	36.5	1	0	40
Team	2	73	36.5	1	0	40

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	OKST	KSU
1st Downs	26	16
3rd down efficiency	4-8	8-18
4th down efficiency	0-0	3-6
Total Yards	565	327
Passing	342	200
Comp/Att	24/30	17/34
Yards per pass	11.4	5.9
Rushing	223	127
Rushing Attempts	34	39
Yards per rush	6.6	3.3
Penalties	3-40	5-55
Turnovers	2	3
Fumbles lost	1	0
Interceptions thrown	1	3
Possession	27:42	32:18

Computer pick · Spread

KSU +3.5

53%

At lock OKST 31.50–29.90 KSU · OKST by 1.6 pts vs KSU +3.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Drew Mestemaker · OKST
22/28 C/ATT · 313 YDS
Blake Barnett · KSU
7/17 C/ATT · 106 YDS
Caleb Hawkins · OKST
20 CAR · 175 YDS
Rodney Fields Jr. · KSU
20 CAR · 87 YDS
Miles Coleman · OKST
6 REC · 95 YDS
Derrick Salley Jr. · KSU
3 REC · 100 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Oklahoma St vs Kansas St pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is KSU +3.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day