Cincinnati Bearcats at #14 Houston Cougars
Final · Fox
24–31
At lock: projected CIN 25.37–35.40 HOU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 7:16 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3199661503
- Winner: Houston (73%)
- Spread: CIN +10.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Under 62.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)6
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: CIN vs HOU
The model
How this number was built
CIN 25.37–35.40 HOU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexHOU +11.9 vs CIN +4.4 · pred margin +9.8
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +7.0 vs +4.5 · model HOU 33.3–26.1 CIN
- Home field+3.0 pts to HOU
- RecordHOU 7-2 · CIN 5-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward HOU -10 / total 61.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
| HOU | 14 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 31 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 9:040–7
Amare Thomas 8 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Jonathan Dimas Kick)
- TDQ1 6:230–14
Amare Thomas 31 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Jonathan Dimas Kick)
- TDQ2 14:167–14
Cole Tabb 17 Yd pass from JC French IV (Stephen Rusnak Kick)
- FGQ2 5:5510–14
Stephen Rusnak 28 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 2:3010–21
Conner Weigman 2 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)
- TDQ3 10:0217–21
Gavin Grover 34 Yd pass from JC French IV (Stephen Rusnak Kick)
- FGQ3 5:1317–24
Jonathan Dimas 28 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 6:2124–24
JC French IV 1 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)
- TDQ4 5:1024–31
Re'Shaun Sanford II 51 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| CIN | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 JC French IV #4 | 19/30 | 217 | 7.2 | 2 | 0 | 81.5 |
| Team | 19/30 | 217 | 7.2 | 2 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| CIN | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gi'Bran Payne #6 | 11 | 71 | 6.5 | 0 | 17 |
 Cole Tabb #3 | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 0 | 16 |
JC French IV #4 | 13 | 24 | 1.8 | 1 | 16 |
 Zylan Perry #7 | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 |
Team | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 41 | 162 | 4.0 | 1 | 17 |
Receiving
| CIN | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Malachi Henry #9 | 6 | 65 | 10.8 | 0 | 16 |
 JV Gibson #11 | 5 | 54 | 10.8 | 0 | 16 |
 Gavin Grover #87 | 2 | 41 | 20.5 | 1 | 34 |
Cole Tabb #3 | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 1 | 17 |
 Larenzo Fenner #2 | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 | 11 |
 Isaiah Johnson #0 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
| Team | 19 | 217 | 11.4 | 2 | 34 |
Fumbles
| CIN | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Team | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Zylan Perry #7 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Defense
| CIN | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jasper Beeler #18 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 MJ Cannon #2 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jacob Finley #0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Antwan Peek Jr. #3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Kenny Worthy #8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Damaine Wilson #9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Marquaze Parker #4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brian Simms III #17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Filip Maciorowski #12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jonathan Thompson #22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Jonathan Rulo #99 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 D'Angelo Hutchinson #30 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cam Roetherford #26 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Marqavious Saboor #5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Patrick Bauer #10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Jaylon White-McClain #16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 CJ Jones #19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zay Johnson #6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Markell Taylor #27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 64 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Kick returns
| CIN | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zylan Perry #7 | 2 | 47 | 23.5 | 30 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 47 | 23.5 | 30 | 0 |
Kicking
| CIN | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stephen Rusnak #99 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 28 | 3/3 | 6 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 28 | 3/3 | 6 |
Punting
| CIN | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Max Fletcher #31 | 3 | 117 | 39.0 | 0 | 2 | 45 |
| Team | 3 | 117 | 39.0 | 0 | 2 | 45 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CIN | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 30 | 23 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 9-14 | 4-8 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Total Yards | 379 | 468 |
| Passing | 217 | 227 |
| Comp/Att | 19/30 | 17/24 |
| Yards per pass | 7.2 | 9.5 |
| Rushing | 162 | 241 |
| Rushing Attempts | 41 | 35 |
| Yards per rush | 4.0 | 6.9 |
| Penalties | 9-54 | 8-50 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 33:38 | 26:22 |
At lock CIN 25.37–35.40 HOU · HOU by 10.0 pts vs CIN +11.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitJC French IV · CIN
19/30 C/ATT · 217 YDSConner Weigman · HOU
17/24 C/ATT · 227 YDSGi'Bran Payne · CIN
11 CAR · 71 YDSRe'Shaun Sanford II · HOU
15 CAR · 126 YDSMalachi Henry · CIN
6 REC · 65 YDSAmare Thomas · HOU
6 REC · 78 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Cincinnati vs Houston pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CIN +11.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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