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NCAAFFinalDavid Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium

UCF Knights at Kansas Jayhawks

Final · ESPN2

UCF33–32Kansas
UCFKansas
Final
UCF Knights
5-4 · L1
284 PF · 260 PA
33
Final
Final
Kansas Jayhawks
3-6 · W1
302 PF · 237 PA
32
UCF 43%KU 57%

At lock: projected UCF 23.62–26.68 KU

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 7:16 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3182883884

Missed · off by 14
Most typical sim
UCF 24 – KU 27
Final
UCF 33 – KU 32
  • Winner: Kansas (58%)
  • Spread: KU -3 covers (49% vs 45%, push 6%)
  • Total: Over 47.5 (61%)
  • Score error (both teams)14

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: UCF vs KU

The model

How this number was built

UCF 23.62–26.68 KU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

  • Power index
    KU +4.2 vs UCF +3.4 · pred margin +5.4
  • Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
    Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +3.8 vs +2.6 · model KU 29.8–24.7 UCF
  • Home field
    +3.0 pts to KU
  • Record
    KU 3-6 · UCF 5-4
  • Market prior
    Blended 66% toward KU -6 / total 47.5
Full write-up of the model

Line score

Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UCF3914733
KU7071832

How the points were scored

  • TDQ1 10:250–7

    Isaiah Marshall 1 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)

  • FGQ1 6:213–7

    Will Stone 37 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ2 12:039–7

    Duane Thomas Jr. 10 Yd Run (Will Stone PAT failed)

  • FGQ2 5:5512–7

    Will Stone 23 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ3 11:5619–7

    Taevion Swint 1 Yd Run (Will Stone Kick)

  • TDQ3 9:5226–7

    Josh Derry 44 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Will Stone Kick)

  • TDQ3 4:1726–14

    Isaiah Marshall 30 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)

  • TDQ4 11:2626–21

    Khijohnn Cummings-Coleman 1 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)

  • FGQ4 5:2926–24

    Martin Connington 34 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ4 1:0626–32

    Dylan Edwards 2 Yd Run (Isaiah Marshall Pass to Nik McMillan for Two-Point Conversion)

  • TDQ4 0:0133–32

    Caden Piening 6 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Will Stone Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

UCFC/ATTYDSAVGTDINTQBR
Alonza Barnett III
#14
18/312518.12163.5
Team18/312518.121--

Rushing

UCFCARYDSAVGTDLONG
Landen Chambers
#11
13403.1019
Alonza Barnett III
#14
12363.0022
Taevion Swint
#4
8192.4112
Duane Thomas Jr.
#7
11010.0110
Rocco Marriott
#8
133.003
Duke Watson
#26
2-1-0.503
Team371072.9222

Receiving

UCFRECYDSAVGTDLONG
Josh Derry
#5
814317.9144
Tyren Hornes
#2
33210.7020
Waden Charles
#9
22311.5020
Chase Hinshaw
#86
12020.0020
Duane Thomas Jr.
#7
11313.0013
Caden Piening
#18
2126.016
Dylan Wade
#0
188.008
Team1825113.9244

Fumbles

UCFFUMLOSTREC
Landen Chambers
#11
110
Alonza Barnett III
#14
100
Braeden Marshall
#4
001
Antione Jackson
#7
001
Team212

Defense

UCFTOTSOLOSACKSTFLPDQB HURTD
Tackett Curtis
#24
11700020
Jayden Williams
#2
8701100
Braeden Marshall
#4
7600000
Caleb Flagg
#18
4300000
Cole Kozlowski
#43
4300000
Antione Jackson
#7
4300200
Jayden Jennings
#38
3200100
Jayden Bellamy
#1
3201000
Sincere Edwards
#10
3200000
Jahleel Culbreath
#34
3200000
Thomas Collins
#99
2200000
Horace Lockett
#0
2100000
Ken Talley
#11
2100000
Rukeem Stroud
#25
2100000
Jeffson Lafontant
#92
2100000
Alonza Barnett III
#14
1100000
Henry Tabansi
#73
1100000
Josh Derry
#5
1100000
Jailen Duffie
#17
1100000
Trenton Turner
#54
1100010
Jordan Nunuha
#23
1000000
Team664802430

Kick returns

UCFNOYDSAVGLONGTD
Taevion Swint
#4
411428.5430
Ken Talley
#11
188.080
Team512224.4430

Punt returns

UCFNOYDSAVGLONGTD
Antione Jackson
#7
263.070
Team263.070

Kicking

UCFFGPCTLONGXPPTS
Will Stone
#15
2/367.0373/49
Team2/366.7373/49

Punting

UCFNOYDSAVGTBIn 20LONG
Atticus Bertrams
#49
422055.01264
Team422055.01264

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

UCFKU
1st Downs2319
3rd down efficiency4-126-14
4th down efficiency1-12-2
Total Yards358404
Passing251210
Comp/Att18/3121/32
Yards per pass8.16.6
Rushing107194
Rushing Attempts3739
Yards per rush2.95.0
Penalties0-05-54
Turnovers22
Fumbles lost12
Interceptions thrown10
Possession30:3429:26
Computer pick · Spread
KU -3
50%

At lock UCF 23.62–26.68 KU · KU by 3.1 pts vs KU -3 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss
Players

  • Alonza Barnett III · UCF

    18/31 C/ATT · 251 YDS

  • Isaiah Marshall · KU

    21/32 C/ATT · 210 YDS

  • Landen Chambers · UCF

    13 CAR · 40 YDS

  • Josh Derry · UCF

    8 REC · 143 YDS

  • Keaton Kubecka · KU

    5 REC · 71 YDS

  • Tackett Curtis · UCF

    11 TOT · 7 SOLO

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

UCF vs Kansas pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is KU -3, with a 50% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day

Overline Sports

Projections blend power-index ratings with DraftKings lines. Every game carries a computer pick and a tagged DK prop; closed games are graded against those pre-game leans. Statistical estimates, not betting advice. Live scores, clocks, and team pages from ESPN.

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