#12 BYU Cougars at #2 Utah Utes
Final · ABC
20–28
At lock: projected BYU 21.38–28.02 UTAH
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 11:17 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3401140026
- Winner: Utah (66%)
- Spread: UTAH -4.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 48.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: BYU vs UTAH
The model
How this number was built
BYU 21.38–28.02 UTAH · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexUTAH +18.6 vs BYU +14.7 · pred margin +5.4
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +14.6 vs +9.5 · model UTAH 32.1–21.0 BYU
- Home field+3.0 pts to UTAH
- RecordUTAH 9-0 · BYU 7-2
- Market priorBlended 66% toward UTAH -4 / total 49.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYU | 3 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| UTAH | 14 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 13:450–7
Devon Dampier 22 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)
- TDQ1 10:310–14
Braden Pegan 46 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)
- FGQ1 6:043–14
Matthias Dunn 31 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ2 14:516–14
Matthias Dunn 38 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 13:1713–14
Legend Glasker 75 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Matthias Dunn Kick)
- TDQ2 7:3520–14
LJ Martin 4 Yd Run (Matthias Dunn Kick)
- TDQ3 1:5020–21
Braden Pegan 14 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)
- TDQ4 12:0320–28
Devon Dampier 3 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| BYU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bear Bachmeier #47 | 21/35 | 272 | 7.8 | 1 | 4 | 56.3 |
Team | 0/1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| Team | 21/36 | 272 | 7.6 | 1 | 4 | -- |
Rushing
| BYU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bear Bachmeier #47 | 8 | 59 | 7.4 | 0 | 19 |
 Sione Moa #30 | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 | 13 |
 LJ Martin #4 | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 1 | 6 |
 Legend Glasker #1 | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | 4 |
Team | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 28 | 119 | 4.3 | 1 | 19 |
Receiving
| BYU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Legend Glasker #1 | 7 | 118 | 16.9 | 1 | 75 |
 Walker Lyons #7 | 7 | 97 | 13.9 | 0 | 35 |
 Kyler Kasper #3 | 3 | 43 | 14.3 | 0 | 27 |
Sione Moa #30 | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | 4 |
LJ Martin #4 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
 Jojo Phillips #13 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Team | 21 | 272 | 13.0 | 1 | 75 |
Fumbles
| BYU | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
 Therrian Alexander III #1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 Nusi Taumoepeau #5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Defense
| BYU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cade Uluave #4 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Bodie Schoonover #48 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Faletau Satuala #11 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Keanu Tanuvasa #57 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tommy Prassas #22 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Isaiah Glasker #16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Hunter Clegg #90 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Therrian Alexander III #1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Raider Damuni #3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Miles Hall #21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Justin Kirkland #96 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nusi Taumoepeau #5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kevin Doe #20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tausili Akana #13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kyle Sfarcioc #64 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Paki Finau #58 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Bruce Mitchell #63 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jordyn Criss #26 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jake Clifton #31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Siale Esera #54 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Anisi Purcell #94 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Braxton Lindsey #30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cannon DeVries #32 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jayven Williams #15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 66 | 26 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| BYU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cannon DeVries #32 | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 24 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 24 | 0 |
Punt returns
| BYU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cannon DeVries #32 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 3 | 0 |
Kicking
| BYU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matthias Dunn #97 | 2/2 | 100.0 | 38 | 2/2 | 8 |
| Team | 2/2 | 100.0 | 38 | 2/2 | 8 |
Punting
| BYU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fuller Shurtz #19 | 4 | 154 | 38.5 | 0 | 1 | 46 |
| Team | 4 | 154 | 38.5 | 0 | 1 | 46 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| BYU | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 15 | 16 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 8-15 | 7-15 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Total Yards | 391 | 330 |
| Passing | 272 | 206 |
| Comp/Att | 21/36 | 15/27 |
| Yards per pass | 7.6 | 7.6 |
| Rushing | 119 | 124 |
| Rushing Attempts | 28 | 35 |
| Yards per rush | 4.3 | 3.5 |
| Penalties | 11-80 | 4-19 |
| Turnovers | 4 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 2 |
| Interceptions thrown | 4 | 0 |
| Possession | 31:52 | 28:08 |
At lock BYU 21.38–28.02 UTAH · UTAH by 6.6 pts vs UTAH -5.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitBear Bachmeier · BYU
21/35 C/ATT · 272 YDSDevon Dampier · UTAH
14/26 C/ATT · 177 YDSLegend Glasker · BYU
7 REC · 118 YDSBraden Pegan · UTAH
5 REC · 86 YDSCade Uluave · BYU
7 TOT · 2 SOLOJohnathan Hall · UTAH
9 TOT · 5 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
BYU vs Utah pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UTAH -5.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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