NCAAFSat 2:45 PM CTMountain America Stadium

Kansas State Wildcats at Arizona State Sun Devils

TV · ESPN2

Sat 2:45 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

KSU -3.5

52%

KSU 30.32–26.17 ASU

Kansas State Wildcats

4-2 · W1 · computer pick

213 PF · 120 PA

30.32

Projected

Arizona State Sun Devils

3-3 · L1

188 PF · 192 PA

26.17

KSU 60%ASU 40%

Projected KSU 30.32–26.17 ASU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

KSU -5.5

KSU -3.5

Total

56.5

Gap: -2.0 margin, -0.0 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: KSU vs ASU

The model

How this number was built

KSU 30.32–26.17 ASU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
ASU -1.3 vs KSU +7.6 · pred margin -4.2
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +1.5 vs +6.5 · model ASU 25.9–30.5 KSU
Home field
+3.0 pts to ASU
Record
ASU 3-3 · KSU 4-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward KSU -3.5 / total 56.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Avery Johnson
Pass 118/187, 1301 YDS, 10 TD, 3 INT
Avery Johnson
Rush 51 CAR, 462 YDS, 3 TD
Jaron Tibbs
Rec 25 REC, 268 YDS, 3 TD

Cutter Boley
Pass 104/168, 1353 YDS, 13 TD, 5 INT
Kyson Brown
Rush 60 CAR, 329 YDS, 1 TD
Reed Harris
Rec 41 REC, 653 YDS, 8 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	KSU	ASU
Points Per Game	35.5	31.3
Total Yards	464.7	420.3
Yards Passing	224.8	276.7
Yards Rushing	239.8	143.7
Points Allowed Per Game	20.0	32.0
Yards Allowed	296.3	373.2
Pass Yards Allowed	136.3	216.3
Rush Yards Allowed	160.0	156.8

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Kansas St vs Arizona St prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is KSU -3.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projects Kansas St 30.3, Arizona St 26.2. Model win probability: Arizona St 40%, Kansas St 60%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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