NCAAFSat 6:30 PM CTCasino Del Sol Stadium

Iowa State Cyclones at #25 Arizona Wildcats

TV · ESPN2

Sat 6:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

ISU +10

51%

ISU 20.87–30.67 ARIZ

Iowa State Cyclones

3-3 · L1 · computer pick

178 PF · 130 PA

20.87

Projected

#25Arizona Wildcats

5-1 · W4

214 PF · 114 PA

30.67

ISU 27%ARIZ 73%

Projected ISU 20.87–30.67 ARIZ

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

ARIZ -9.4

ARIZ -10.0

Total

51.6

51.5

Gap: -0.6 margin, +0.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: ISU vs ARIZ

The model

How this number was built

ISU 20.87–30.67 ARIZ · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
ARIZ +10.5 vs ISU +4.3 · pred margin +9.8
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +9.2 vs +5.1 · model ARIZ 30.8–21.1 ISU
Home field
+3.0 pts to ARIZ
Record
ARIZ 5-1 · ISU 3-3
Market prior
Blended 68% toward ARIZ -10 / total 51.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jaylen Raynor
Pass 85/148, 1001 YDS, 7 TD, 4 INT
Aiden Flora
Rush 90 CAR, 680 YDS, 6 TD
Dominic Overby
Rec 10 REC, 212 YDS, 1 TD

Noah Fifita
Pass 140/191, 1756 YDS, 16 TD, 4 INT
Kedrick Reescano
Rush 72 CAR, 262 YDS, 4 TD
Isaiah Mizell
Rec 19 REC, 359 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ISU	ARIZ
Points Per Game	29.7	35.7
Total Yards	359.7	456.5
Yards Passing	178.2	306.7
Yards Rushing	181.5	149.8
Points Allowed Per Game	21.7	19.0
Yards Allowed	352.3	330.5
Pass Yards Allowed	198.5	214.2
Rush Yards Allowed	153.8	116.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Iowa State vs Arizona prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is ISU +10, with a 51% model probability. The model projects Iowa State 20.9, Arizona 30.7. Model win probability: Arizona 73%, Iowa State 27%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day