NCAAFSat 6:00 PM CTBoone Pickens Stadium

Colorado Buffaloes at Oklahoma State Cowboys

TV · FS1

Sat 6:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

COLO +13.5

52%

COLO 21.27–33.82 OKST

Colorado Buffaloes

2-4 · L4 · computer pick

117 PF · 154 PA

21.27

Projected

Oklahoma State Cowboys

4-2 · L1

223 PF · 142 PA

33.82

COLO 22%OKST 78%

Projected COLO 21.27–33.82 OKST

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

OKST -10.6

OKST -13.5

Total

54.2

55.5

Gap: -2.9 margin, -1.3 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: COLO vs OKST

The model

How this number was built

COLO 21.27–33.82 OKST · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
OKST +9.0 vs COLO +1.0 · pred margin +12.6
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +1.9 vs -2.2 · model OKST 30.5–20.8 COLO
Home field
+3.0 pts to OKST
Record
OKST 4-2 · COLO 2-4
Market prior
Blended 68% toward OKST -13.5 / total 55.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Julian Lewis
Pass 61/95, 733 YDS, 6 TD, 2 INT
JaQuail Smith
Rush 51 CAR, 259 YDS
Joseph Williams
Rec 37 REC, 508 YDS, 5 TD

Drew Mestemaker
Pass 136/203, 1940 YDS, 16 TD, 6 INT
Caleb Hawkins
Rush 123 CAR, 592 YDS, 2 TD
Wyatt Young
Rec 32 REC, 561 YDS, 5 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	COLO	OKST
Points Per Game	19.5	37.2
Total Yards	394.2	517.7
Yards Passing	253.8	329.5
Yards Rushing	140.3	188.2
Points Allowed Per Game	25.7	23.7
Yards Allowed	357.2	358.2
Pass Yards Allowed	226.8	207.0
Rush Yards Allowed	130.3	151.2

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Colorado vs Oklahoma St prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is COLO +13.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projects Colorado 21.3, Oklahoma St 33.8. Model win probability: Oklahoma St 78%, Colorado 22%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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