NCAAFSat 2:30 PM CTAcrisure Bounce House

#2 BYU Cougars at UCF Knights

TV · Fox

Sat 2:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

BYU -6.5

52%

BYU 25.68–18.42 UCF

#2BYU Cougars

6-0 · W6 · computer pick

201 PF · 91 PA

25.68

Projected

UCF Knights

3-3 · L2

190 PF · 130 PA

18.42

BYU 67%UCF 33%

Projected BYU 25.68–18.42 UCF

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

BYU -8.9

BYU -6.5

Total

45.3

43.5

Gap: -2.4 margin, +1.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: BYU vs UCF

The model

How this number was built

BYU 25.68–18.42 UCF · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
UCF +5.2 vs BYU +17.4 · pred margin -7.3
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +3.4 vs +10.7 · model UCF 20.7–28.9 BYU
Home field
+3.0 pts to UCF
Record
UCF 3-3 · BYU 6-0
Market prior
Blended 68% toward BYU -6.5 / total 43.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Bear Bachmeier
Pass 100/152, 1257 YDS, 9 TD, 2 INT
LJ Martin
Rush 44 CAR, 344 YDS, 3 TD
Legend Glasker
Rec 24 REC, 444 YDS, 3 TD

Keyone Jenkins
Pass 83/118, 806 YDS, 8 TD, 3 INT
Duke Watson
Rush 70 CAR, 483 YDS, 3 TD
Josh Derry
Rec 28 REC, 304 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	BYU	UCF
Points Per Game	33.5	31.7
Total Yards	421.2	354.8
Yards Passing	214.5	192.7
Yards Rushing	206.7	162.2
Points Allowed Per Game	15.2	21.7
Yards Allowed	274.7	355.2
Pass Yards Allowed	188.5	236.8
Rush Yards Allowed	86.2	118.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

BYU vs UCF prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is BYU -6.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projects BYU 25.7, UCF 18.4. Model win probability: UCF 33%, BYU 67%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day