Vanderbilt Commodores at Mississippi State Bulldogs
Final · SEC Network
25–23
At lock: projected VAN 24.17–27.46 MSST
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 7:16 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2349926102
- Winner: Mississippi St (59%)
- Spread: MSST -3 covers (49% vs 44%, push 6%)
- Total: Over 48.5 (63%)
- Score error (both teams)6
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: VAN vs MSST
The model
How this number was built
VAN 24.17–27.46 MSST · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexMSST +6.9 vs VAN +0.7 · pred margin +4.3
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +0.9 vs +1.9 · model MSST 28.6–26.9 VAN
- Home field+3.0 pts to MSST
- RecordMSST 4-5 · VAN 4-5
- Market priorBlended 66% toward MSST -3 / total 48.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 3 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 25 |
| MSST | 0 | 0 | 14 | 9 | 23 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ1 2:593–0
Brock Taylor 38 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 6:1810–0
Sedrick Alexander 2 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)
- FGQ2 1:4313–0
Brock Taylor 36 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ2 0:0016–0
Brock Taylor 22 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 11:2016–7
Sanfrisco Magee 65 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Kyle Ferrie Kick)
- TDQ3 10:2816–14
Will Whitson 14 Yd Fumble Return (Kyle Ferrie Kick)
- FGQ3 3:5819–14
Brock Taylor 54 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ4 12:5022–14
Brock Taylor 34 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ4 4:5622–17
Kyle Ferrie 26 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ4 1:4625–17
Brock Taylor 55 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 0:3225–23
Sanfrisco Magee 30 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| VAN | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jared Curtis #2 | 17/27 | 168 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 40.9 |
| Team | 17/27 | 168 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| VAN | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Makhilyn Young #22 | 15 | 63 | 4.2 | 0 | 15 |
 Sedrick Alexander #28 | 21 | 59 | 2.8 | 1 | 10 |
Jared Curtis #2 | 13 | 22 | 1.7 | 0 | 22 |
 Jamezell Lassiter #3 | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 | 15 |
Team | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 52 | 160 | 3.1 | 1 | 22 |
Receiving
| VAN | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tristen Brown #5 | 2 | 52 | 26.0 | 0 | 33 |
 Junior Sherrill #0 | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 0 | 22 |
Sedrick Alexander #28 | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 | 20 |
 Cole Spence #16 | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 | 20 |
Jamezell Lassiter #3 | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 | 18 |
 Martel Hight #4 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 |
 Jayvontay Conner #8 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
 Ja'Cory Thomas #6 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Team | 17 | 168 | 9.9 | 0 | 33 |
Fumbles
| VAN | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Jared Curtis #2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Defense
| VAN | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mason Lewis #25 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 Bryan Longwell #11 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Davin Chandler #21 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 Nick Rinaldi #24 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Issa Ouattara #5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Bryce Cowan #22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 CJ Heard #8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cayden Daniels #26 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Talan Carter #99 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Glenn Seabrooks III #53 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ricardo Jones #7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Miles Capers #29 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Edwin Kolenge #17 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Jaylon Stone #92 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Jailen Ruth #14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dontae Carter #1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Bradley Mann #94 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jordan Matthews #6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Brian Allen Jr. #10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Carson Lawrence #3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 64 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
Interceptions
| VAN | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Jordan Matthews #6 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 17 | 0 |
Punt returns
| VAN | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Martel Hight #4 | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 19 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 19 | 0 |
Kicking
| VAN | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brock Taylor #88 | 6/6 | 100.0 | 55 | 1/1 | 19 |
| Team | 6/6 | 100.0 | 55 | 1/1 | 19 |
Punting
| VAN | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tyler Ebel #37 | 5 | 248 | 49.6 | 1 | 3 | 64 |
| Team | 5 | 248 | 49.6 | 1 | 3 | 64 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| VAN | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 20 | 12 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 4-17 | 5-14 |
| 4th down efficiency | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Total Yards | 328 | 297 |
| Passing | 168 | 254 |
| Comp/Att | 17/27 | 23/36 |
| Yards per pass | 6.2 | 7.1 |
| Rushing | 160 | 43 |
| Rushing Attempts | 52 | 19 |
| Yards per rush | 3.1 | 2.3 |
| Penalties | 6-25 | 5-31 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
| Possession | 39:55 | 20:05 |
At lock VAN 24.17–27.46 MSST · 3.1 pts over 48.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissJared Curtis · VAN
17/27 C/ATT · 168 YDSAJ Swann · MSST
23/36 C/ATT · 254 YDSMakhilyn Young · VAN
15 CAR · 63 YDSFluff Bothwell · MSST
14 CAR · 50 YDSTristen Brown · VAN
2 REC · 52 YDSSanfrisco Magee · MSST
2 REC · 95 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Vanderbilt vs Mississippi St pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 48.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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