#1 Georgia Bulldogs at #19 Ole Miss Rebels
Final · ABC
42–7
At lock: projected UGA 30.34–26.43 MISS
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 7:16 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2333148483
- Winner: Georgia (59%)
- Spread: UGA -3.5 covers (50%)
- Total: Over 56.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)32
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: UGA vs MISS
The model
How this number was built
UGA 30.34–26.43 MISS · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexMISS +18.3 vs UGA +27.2 · pred margin -4.6
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +9.0 vs +16.9 · model MISS 23.2–32.2 UGA
- Home field+3.0 pts to MISS
- RecordMISS 6-3 · UGA 8-1
- Market priorBlended 66% toward UGA -3.5 / total 56.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UGA | 14 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 42 |
| MISS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 10:167–0
Craig Dandridge 4 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)
- TDQ1 6:1814–0
Talyn Taylor 58 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)
- TDQ2 14:1621–0
Ethan Barbour 3 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)
- TDQ2 2:4228–0
Gunner Stockton 15 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)
- TDQ3 1:3735–0
Talyn Taylor 6 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)
- TDQ4 10:4335–7
Shekai Mills-Knight 8 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)
- TDQ4 9:0642–7
Talyn Taylor 65 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| UGA | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gunner Stockton #14 | 9/15 | 186 | 12.4 | 4 | 0 | 95.1 |
| Team | 9/15 | 186 | 12.4 | 4 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| UGA | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nate Frazier #3 | 16 | 107 | 6.7 | 0 | 46 |
 Dwight Phillips Jr. #20 | 11 | 66 | 6.0 | 0 | 14 |
 Bo Walker #24 | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 | 19 |
Gunner Stockton #14 | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 1 | 15 |
 Jaden Reddell #23 | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 | 19 |
 Nick Peal #30 | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 | 13 |
 Sacovie White-Helton #0 | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 | 14 |
 Craig Dandridge #81 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 | 4 |
Team | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 48 | 295 | 6.1 | 2 | 46 |
Receiving
| UGA | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Talyn Taylor #1 | 4 | 140 | 35.0 | 3 | 65 |
Jaden Reddell #23 | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 | 23 |
 Lawson Luckie #7 | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | 11 |
Dwight Phillips Jr. #20 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 |
 Ethan Barbour #9 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Team | 9 | 186 | 20.7 | 4 | 65 |
Fumbles
| UGA | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
 Rasean Dinkins #14 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Defense
| UGA | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chris Cole #9 | 9 | 6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Raylen Wilson #5 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Demello Jones #8 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rasean Dinkins #14 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Gabe Harris Jr. #0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ellis Robinson IV #1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Elijah Griffin #90 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Khalil Barnes #7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 KJ Bolden #4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Khamari Brooks #15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Justin Williams #19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jordan Hall #44 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ja'Marley Riddle #12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Valdin Sone #52 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zion Branch #2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Justin Greene #91 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jontae Gilbert #25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Quintavius Johnson #3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Blake Stewart #27 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Anthony Lonon Jr. #38 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Josh Horton #81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Braylon Conley #24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 63 | 33 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Interceptions
| UGA | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
KJ Bolden #4 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 26 | 0 |
Punt returns
| UGA | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sacovie White-Helton #0 | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 | 0 |
Kicking
| UGA | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Peyton Woodring #91 | 0/1 | 0.0 | 0 | 6/6 | 6 |
| Team | 0/1 | 0.0 | 0 | 6/6 | 6 |
Punting
| UGA | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Drew Miller #90 | 3 | 133 | 44.3 | 0 | 2 | 47 |
| Team | 3 | 133 | 44.3 | 0 | 2 | 47 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UGA | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 23 | 19 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 7-12 | 6-16 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-1 | 3-3 |
| Total Yards | 481 | 252 |
| Passing | 186 | 186 |
| Comp/Att | 9/15 | 21/38 |
| Yards per pass | 12.4 | 4.9 |
| Rushing | 295 | 66 |
| Rushing Attempts | 48 | 31 |
| Yards per rush | 6.1 | 2.1 |
| Penalties | 3-16 | 5-50 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
| Possession | 34:41 | 25:19 |
At lock UGA 30.34–26.43 MISS · UGA by 3.9 pts vs UGA -3.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock
HitGunner Stockton · UGA
9/15 C/ATT · 186 YDSTrinidad Chambliss · MISS
18/34 C/ATT · 170 YDSNate Frazier · UGA
16 CAR · 107 YDSShekai Mills-Knight · MISS
13 CAR · 52 YDSTalyn Taylor · UGA
4 REC · 140 YDSHoratio Fields · MISS
8 REC · 96 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Georgia vs Ole Miss pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UGA -3.5, with a 50% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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