Oklahoma Sooners at Florida Gators
Final · SEC Network
23–7
At lock: projected OU 20.66–25.86 FLA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 7:17 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2602723220
- Winner: Florida (62%)
- Spread: OU +6.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 45.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)21
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: OU vs FLA
The model
How this number was built
OU 20.66–25.86 FLA · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexFLA +12.5 vs OU +13.6 · pred margin +3.0
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +3.2 vs +5.6 · model FLA 22.8–23.3 OU
- Home field+3.0 pts to FLA
- RecordFLA 5-4 · OU 5-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward FLA -4 / total 46.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OU | 3 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 23 |
| FLA | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ1 7:363–0
Tate Sandell 41 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 9:4210–0
Hayden Hansen 3 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)
- TDQ2 3:0010–7
Jadan Baugh 15 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)
- FGQ2 0:3613–7
Tate Sandell 48 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 4:5620–7
Isaiah Sategna III 6 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)
- FGQ4 1:5623–7
Tate Sandell 31 Yd Field Goal
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| OU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 John Mateer #10 | 21/33 | 207 | 6.3 | 2 | 0 | 72.0 |
| Team | 21/33 | 207 | 6.3 | 2 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| OU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Mateer #10 | 14 | 56 | 4.0 | 0 | 15 |
 Lloyd Avant #9 | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 0 | 8 |
 Tory Blaylock #6 | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 | 11 |
 Jonathan Hatton Jr. #20 | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 | 5 |
 Isaiah Sategna III #1 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
Team | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 40 | 144 | 3.6 | 0 | 15 |
Receiving
| OU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rocky Beers #81 | 4 | 72 | 18.0 | 0 | 41 |
 Jacob Jordan #7 | 4 | 36 | 9.0 | 0 | 18 |
Isaiah Sategna III #1 | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 1 | 15 |
 Parker Livingstone #3 | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 | 16 |
 Manny Choice #0 | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 |
 Elijah Thomas #14 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 9 |
Lloyd Avant #9 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
 Hayden Hansen #89 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Team | 21 | 207 | 9.9 | 2 | 41 |
Defense
| OU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Owen Heinecke #38 | 10 | 4 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Michael Boganowski #25 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kip Lewis #10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Danny Okoye #16 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Reggie Powers III #3 | 4 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Omarion Robinson #2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Eli Bowen #23 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Peyton Bowen #22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jayden Jackson #65 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ben Anderson #50 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Markel Ford #5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Lebron Bauer #33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Courtland Guillory #4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Niko Jandreau #13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Trystan Haynes #14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Xavier Robinson #21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Elijah Thomas #14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 James Nesta #47 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 49 | 27 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Interceptions
| OU | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Peyton Bowen #22 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Courtland Guillory #4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Punt returns
| OU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Isaiah Sategna III #1 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 2 | 0 |
Kicking
| OU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tate Sandell #29 | 3/3 | 100.0 | 48 | 2/2 | 11 |
| Team | 3/3 | 100.0 | 48 | 2/2 | 11 |
Punting
| OU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacob Ulrich #87 | 4 | 173 | 43.3 | 0 | 1 | 53 |
| Team | 4 | 173 | 43.3 | 0 | 1 | 53 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| OU | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 20 | 11 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 10-18 | 2-9 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Total Yards | 351 | 203 |
| Passing | 207 | 133 |
| Comp/Att | 21/33 | 10/22 |
| Yards per pass | 6.3 | 6.0 |
| Rushing | 144 | 70 |
| Rushing Attempts | 40 | 25 |
| Yards per rush | 3.6 | 2.8 |
| Penalties | 9-70 | 4-40 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 2 |
| Possession | 37:50 | 22:10 |
At lock OU 20.66–25.86 FLA · FLA by 5.2 pts vs OU +7 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitJohn Mateer · OU
21/33 C/ATT · 207 YDSTramell Jones Jr. · FLA
10/22 C/ATT · 133 YDSJadan Baugh · FLA
8 CAR · 35 YDSRocky Beers · OU
4 REC · 72 YDSDuke Clark · FLA
4 REC · 70 YDSOwen Heinecke · OU
10 TOT · 4 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Oklahoma vs Florida pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is OU +7, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day