Arkansas Razorbacks at Auburn Tigers
Final · SEC Network
23–26
At lock: projected ARK 20.10–30.45 AUB
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 11:55 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2619500839
- Winner: Auburn (75%)
- Spread: AUB -10 covers (50% vs 48%, push 3%)
- Total: Under 53.5 (62%)
- Score error (both teams)7
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ARK vs AUB
The model
How this number was built
ARK 20.10–30.45 AUB · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexAUB +8.7 vs ARK +1.6 · pred margin +10.2
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +3.1 vs -0.6 · model AUB 29.7–20.6 ARK
- Home field+3.0 pts to AUB
- RecordAUB 5-4 · ARK 3-6
- Market priorBlended 66% toward AUB -10.5 / total 53.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARK | 3 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 23 |
| AUB | 0 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 26 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ1 2:283–0
Max Gilbert 38 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 11:2110–0
Braylen Russell 2 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)
- FGQ2 0:0310–3
Alex McPherson 33 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 5:0110–9
Chas Nimrod 15 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Alex McPherson PAT failed)
- FGQ3 1:3613–9
Max Gilbert 37 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 12:5013–16
Byrum Brown 5 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)
- FGQ4 9:3216–16
Max Gilbert 46 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 3:5616–23
Keshaun Singleton 28 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Alex McPherson Kick)
- TDQ4 1:5423–23
Antonio Jordan 23 Yd pass from KJ Jackson (Max Gilbert Kick)
- FGQ4 0:3323–26
Alex McPherson 43 Yd Field Goal
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| ARK | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KJ Jackson #7 | 14/30 | 180 | 6.0 | 1 | 1 | 45.4 |
| Team | 14/30 | 180 | 6.0 | 1 | 1 | -- |
Rushing
| ARK | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cam Settles #27 | 16 | 100 | 6.3 | 0 | 46 |
 Sutton Smith #5 | 3 | 64 | 21.3 | 0 | 65 |
 Braylen Russell #0 | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 1 | 8 |
 Markeylin Batton #25 | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 | 7 |
Team | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
KJ Jackson #7 | 9 | -27 | -3.0 | 0 | 13 |
| Team | 44 | 172 | 3.9 | 1 | 65 |
Receiving
| ARK | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chris Marshall #6 | 5 | 65 | 13.0 | 0 | 29 |
 Ty Lockwood #85 | 1 | 43 | 43.0 | 0 | 43 |
 Antonio Jordan #19 | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 1 | 23 |
 Donovan Faupel #8 | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 | 17 |
 Monte Harrison #11 | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | 8 |
 Jaden Platt #83 | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | 12 |
 Ismael Cisse #4 | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | 7 |
 CJ Brown #3 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
 AJ Hill #2 | 0 | -10 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 14 | 180 | 12.9 | 1 | 43 |
Fumbles
| ARK | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Team | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Sutton Smith #5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Defense
| ARK | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Khmori House #6 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Miguel Mitchell #24 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Joker Johnson #20 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 Ben Bogle #44 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brylan Green #34 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 Carlon Jones #91 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Hunter Osborne #0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Quincy Rhodes Jr. #97 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Bradley Shaw #7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Charlie Collins #9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Xadavien Sims #88 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ja'Quavion Smith #25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Antonio Sandel-Bascomb #55 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 David Oke #92 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Steven Soles Jr. #35 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Phoenix Jackson #8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Shelton Lewis #2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Danny Beale III #99 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Trajen Odom #28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 73 | 41 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Kick returns
| ARK | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jamari Hawkins #9 | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 25 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 25 | 0 |
Punt returns
| ARK | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sutton Smith #5 | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 | 0 |
Kicking
| ARK | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Max Gilbert #30 | 3/5 | 60.0 | 46 | 2/2 | 11 |
| Team | 3/5 | 60.0 | 46 | 2/2 | 11 |
Punting
| ARK | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jesse Ehrlich #34 | 3 | 125 | 41.7 | 0 | 0 | 53 |
| Team | 3 | 125 | 41.7 | 0 | 0 | 53 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ARK | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 20 | 21 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 8-18 | 4-15 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Total Yards | 352 | 362 |
| Passing | 180 | 180 |
| Comp/Att | 14/30 | 23/34 |
| Yards per pass | 6.0 | 5.3 |
| Rushing | 172 | 182 |
| Rushing Attempts | 44 | 40 |
| Yards per rush | 3.9 | 4.6 |
| Penalties | 4-25 | 6-50 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
| Possession | 33:16 | 26:44 |
At lock ARK 20.10–30.45 AUB · 0.05 pts over 50.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissKJ Jackson · ARK
14/30 C/ATT · 180 YDSByrum Brown · AUB
23/34 C/ATT · 180 YDSCam Settles · ARK
16 CAR · 100 YDSChris Marshall · ARK
5 REC · 65 YDSKeshaun Singleton · AUB
6 REC · 58 YDSKhmori House · ARK
9 TOT · 7 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Arkansas vs Auburn pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 50.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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