NCAAFSat 6:30 PM CTDKR-Texas Memorial Stadium

#7 Ole Miss Rebels at #19 Texas Longhorns

TV · ABC

Sat 6:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

TEX -3.5

52%

MISS 24.25–28.41 TEX

#7Ole Miss Rebels

5-1 · W2

225 PF · 143 PA

24.25

Projected

#19Texas Longhorns

4-2 · L2 · computer pick

181 PF · 107 PA

28.41

MISS 40%TEX 60%

Projected MISS 24.25–28.41 TEX

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

TEX -5.5

TEX -3.5

Total

53.0

52.5

Gap: +2.0 margin, +0.5 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: MISS vs TEX

The model

How this number was built

MISS 24.25–28.41 TEX · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
TEX +23.6 vs MISS +18.8 · pred margin +4.2
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +7.9 vs +9.9 · model TEX 27.1–27.0 MISS
Home field
+3.0 pts to TEX
Record
TEX 4-2 · MISS 5-1
Market prior
Blended 68% toward TEX -3.5 / total 52.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Trinidad Chambliss
Pass 142/210, 1676 YDS, 14 TD, 4 INT
Kewan Lacy
Rush 62 CAR, 352 YDS, 5 TD
Deuce Alexander
Rec 35 REC, 523 YDS, 5 TD

Arch Manning
Pass 106/166, 1295 YDS, 11 TD, 5 INT
Hollywood Smothers
Rush 65 CAR, 289 YDS, 2 TD
Ryan Wingo
Rec 26 REC, 345 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MISS	TEX
Points Per Game	37.5	30.2
Total Yards	444.5	361.3
Yards Passing	290.7	226.3
Yards Rushing	153.8	135.0
Points Allowed Per Game	23.8	17.8
Yards Allowed	390.0	272.5
Pass Yards Allowed	236.5	166.2
Rush Yards Allowed	153.5	106.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Ole Miss vs Texas prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is TEX -3.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projects Ole Miss 24.3, Texas 28.4. Model win probability: Texas 60%, Ole Miss 40%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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